Value Betting - Advanced Strategy in Extraction

A lot of the money good poker players make comes from their skills in value betting. A value bet occurs when you put your opponent on a hand, and yours is better. You evaluate how much your opponent is willing to pay you with his worse holding, and then make that bet. If you want to maximize your profit at the poker table; value betting should be a vital part of your game strategy.

The most important factor in making good value bets is to be good at putting opponents on hands. You have to be pretty sure of what your opponent is holding and then act accordingly to that. This skill takes a lot of practice and comes naturally after playing many thousands of hands. Putting opponents on hands and make value bets are two things that often separate winning players from the losing players. Even though this is very much based on practice there are some things that you can think about when trying to decide what to bet on the river. I'll try to explain how I think when pondering a value bet.

Example 1: The game is $3-$6 No Limit Texas Holdem and you have A♣ T♥ on the button. Two players limp in before you and you call. The flop comes 2♣ T♠ Q♦. All players check to you and you decide to bet your middle pair. You bet $20 in the $27 pot. Big Blind folds, and so does the next player, but the last player decides to call. The turn is 3? and you both check. The river is 3?. Your opponent checks again. What do you do in this situation?

Let us evaluate what has happened. It is not very probable that your opponent has a Q. With a queen he would have bet the river after you checked on the turn. A possible holding is KJ, he limped pre-flop and KJ is a hand some people like to call with before the flop. You won't be able to get any more from him on the river if he holds a busted straight, but on the other hand, that holding is not a threat to you either. He could have a T with a worse kicker JT, T9 or something like that. He made a call on the flop because you were last to act and he might have thought that you just tried to steal the pot.

I think you should bet here, but how much? You want your opponent to have a T with a worse kicker than you. You showed some weakness on the turn, and he might definitely call you with that kind of hand. If you bet too much he will probably muck, so the appropriate amount is about half of the pot. That could look like a bluff in the eyes of your opponent, but in reality it is a good value bet.

Example 2: You play $1/$2 No Limit Texas Hold em and have K♣ Q♣ in late position. A player in middle position limps and you decide to raise it up to $8. All players fold to the original raiser and he calls. The flop comes: 2♦ Q♥ K♠. Your opponent checks and you bet $15. Your opponent decides to call.

Let us stop here for a moment. What are your opponent's possible holdings? We have to take into consideration that he limped pre-flop, called your raise, and then called your bet on the flop. AK is probably out of the question since almost all players raise with that hand pre-flop. He probably has a KT or KJ for top pair, or maybe JT for a straight draw. It is also possible that he holds 22. Ok, let's carry on.

The turn comes: Th, Your opponent checks, you bet, and again he calls. What does this mean?

22 is not a very likely holding anymore. Th created a very scary looking board and if your opponent holds a set he would most definitely bet or check-raise the turn.

The river comes: 9♠ creating the board 2♦ Q♥ K♠ T♥ 9♠. It is checked to you. The pot is $129. What do you do now?

Firstly, you have to think about what your opponent thoughts about you. If he thinks you are a bad player, he might check with the straight on the river to be able to check-raise. But if he sees you as a good player he wouldn't do that, because you would fold to a check-raise. Instead he would bet out the straight.

If you consider your opponent to be a good player, and vice versa, you could value bet something in the range of $40. But you must know that your opponent is able to make pretty tough calls. Hopefully he holds KT and two pair, a holding he could pay you off with.

Against all players, the exception might be total maniacs; you have to fold to a check-raise. When you make a value bet and are last to act, very often you do it knowing that you have to muck the hand if you are raised.

Example 3: The game is $2/$4 NL Holdem and you hold A♦ 3♦. You sit in middle position and one player in early position limps in, you decide to do the same. Big blind checks. The flop comes: 2♥ 2♣ 8♠ and all players check. (maybe you should have bet here, but that's another story). The turn is: T♣, and it is round-checked again. Q♥ comes on the river and it is checked to you. It is $14 in the pot, what do you do?

You probably hold the best hand right now with A high. What should you bet? The answer is nothing! To make a successful value bet you have to be sure that someone holds a hand worse than yours, but still good enough to make a call with. The second best hand in this situation would be K high. Almost no player would call with that and therefore you should check and probably win the pot.

Conclusion

Concentration is the key to good value betting. You have to focus on the game and evaluate everything that happens on every street. Try to take everything into consideration when putting opponents on hands. What happened pre-flop, on flop, on turn and on river? When you become good at that, the amounts you should bet on the river comes pretty naturally.

The question you always should ask yourself is: How much money is my opponent willing to pay me with his second best holding?