The Science Behind Poker Tells: What Psychology Says About Bluffing

When we look at the bluff in today’s modern game, it is one of many complex and rewarding poker plays. From the three-bet to the triple barrel, the bluff is now an integral part of poker and players of all levels feel more comfortable making it. No longer the ‘Cadillac’, perhaps the poker bluff is more like a family saloon, something everyone can aspire to use at some point in their lives.

The science behind bluffing, however, is what can give you a psychological edge compared to your opponents. Use the bluff in a way that wins regularly and you’ll likely be attuned to physical and verbal tells, as well as dozens of other indicators that your bold move will work.

Before we tell you the science behind the move, let’s look at what a bluff is and how – and more importantly when – you should use it.

What is a Bluff in Poker?

A bluff is a bet or raise that has been made with a hand that is not the best one or is presumed to be worse than one or more opposing hands still active in the hand. The bet or raise is made with the goal of deceiving opponents into folding and thus winning the pot.

The bluff is, at its heart, the biggest lie that poker players tell at the felt. The most powerful weapon, the most dangerous play, a bluff can torch your remaining chips or swing the momentum in your favor and win you millions of dollars. It is an act of concealment and strategy, requiring a deep understanding of your opponents and the game situation.

Just as a Cadillac represents a high-end, sophisticated vehicle, bluffing is considered a high-level skill that separates amateurs from professionals. In reality, anyone can bluff in the same way that someone who drives a beat-up 15-year-old Honda Civic (don’t judge me!) could climb behind the wheel of a Lamborghini.

Pros and Cons of Bluffing

1. What Can Go Right?

Bluffing has the potential to change your poker game and even your life for the better. A well-executed bluff can yield a significant win and involves a degree of artistry and flair that many poker players get wrong. Make it a move rather than a random play you drop in at inopportune moments and it can be your most powerful act at the poker table.

2. What Can Go Wrong?

Bluffing is situational and if you choose the wrong moment, it can blow up in your face. Your bluff can work out or go wrong and this is often entirely dependent on the circumstances, your opponent(s) in the hand, and your own table image.

Bluffing requires practice and while the AI help like GGWizard on GGPoker or solver assistance like PioSolver can teach you when to make certain plays, they can’t look a player in the eyes as you pull the trigger and push all your chips in when you’re at risk with a busted flush draw.

Bluffing isn’t always done with the worst hand. It can be done with a weaker hand that gets a player with a slightly stronger hand that is also poor to fold. In the 2006 James Bond movie Casino Royale, the final hand features four massive hands, but factor in the blinds and the two flushes look like bluffing hands. Watch the hilarious imbalance of the grandiose moves and the short-stacked shoves here:

When is Bluffing Truly Effective?

True skill in bluffing comes from countless hours of experience and refining the strategy behind the bluff. There’s always a risk of being called by an opponent with a stronger hand, making its successful application a complex and calculated endeavor to carry out. The psychological principles behind bluffing are simpler to understand and if you can master them, provide a solid foundation upon which to build your strategy.

Firstly, bluffing well requires confidence and consistency. This means telling a convincing story. This nature goes back to our earliest days as humans, telling stories by scratching shapes into cave walls. At their heart, stories are truth, but many of the greatest stories are telling the truth within the lie. This is also true of bluffing. You need to make your opponent fold by the fear of their hand being weaker than yours (a lie) being outweighed by the evidence or circumstances (the truth) of your actions.

Your betting pattern has to match your story. If you look like you’re betting each street for value, then on the river, push all-in for way over the pot, it can look like a desperate grab to hang onto a pot you’ve already lost. Controlling your emotions is key. Reign in anxiety, stay calm and measured and don’t give yourself away through physical tells.

Bluffing in poker is all about deception and convincing your opponent that what you are telling them, through body language, betting patterns, physical mis-tells or all three combined, is true. Understanding then manipulating your opponents is about creating a false imagine strength to your hand that is in their head. As such, you need to recognize their tells and act on them to deduce whether it is the right time to bluff, then how to do it.

Watch this superb bluff from Mikki Mase on Garrett Adelstein if you want an example of how someone with little experience convinces a seasoned professional to lay down the best hand… then shows him five-high!

A Game of Cat and Mouse

Bluffing is, essentially, a move to confuse your opponents. If you can make them think that you’ve got a better hand than theirs and they don’t know where they are, then a fold is so much more likely than a call. Understanding your opponent’s emotional state, then manipulating it, is vital to your bluff’s chances of success.

Bluffing is also something that fits your personality. If you have a higher tolerance to risk to gain rewards in your life, then bluffing will fit you better, according to a study by   Psychology Today. If you are self-aware, then you’ll know when not to overvalue strong hands or underestimate the likelihood of a bluff succeeding.

Experienced players with high risk tolerance can identify players who show weakness or fold under pressure. By looking at your opponents tells, you can ascertain if they will fold to aggressive betting. Remember to stay composed under pressure – it is crucial for both bluffing and correctly interpreting your opponent’s behaviors.

Bluffing is a psychological game of cat and mouse, where understanding your fellow human’s actions is just as vital as knowing the strength of the cards in play.

In Conclusion

In essence, bluffing is all about controlling your emotions before using information you have built up on your opponents to blend strategy with psychological awareness. Part deception, part perception, bluffing is still the Cadillac of poker moves all these years after Doyle Brunson once christened it as such and the most dynamic and thrilling play in the game of poker can still win or lose you everything.

Tread carefully, but without fear as you deduce your opponents’ weaknesses, before exploiting them with a well-timed bluff. And remember – don’t show them the bluff unless you have any reason to! You could be giving vital information away, no matter how satisfying it is in the moment.

Watch Jonathan Little’s superb video about bluffing and when to do it right here: