Who is the Polymarket Betting Favorite to win the WSOP Main Event?

With just nine players remaining, the 2026 WSOP Main Event could be one of the most exciting finales in Las Vegas history. Running alongside the traditional hype of players’ plans in the three-week hiatus between making the final table and playing down to a winner is the Polymarket futures betting odds. It’s not been possible to bet so extensively on the WSOP Main Event final in previous years but thanks to a legal loophole of predictions markets escaping prohibitive law, poker fans can back who they think will win with their own money in 2026.

Jumalon the Runaway Favorite

It’s fairly obvious to anyone taking a look at the chipcounts (above) that the American Lucas Jumalon is a deserved favorite. Coming into the final on a wave of momentum, Jumalon acted as executioner to a host of big names and piled up an astonishing stack of 194 million chips. With a total of 553 million chips in play, Jumalon’sstack equates to 35% of the chips in play.

While that stack is a big lead, it’s not all the chips and Jumalon will certainly have to face moments of peril when he returns to action in the Paris Ballroom with all the pressure on his shoulders. His nearest competitor, Canada’s Rami Hammoud, has 79 million chips, way less than half of Jumalon’s stack. On Polymarket, the U.S. predictions markets betting site, 34% of backers believe Jumalon will see it out and go wire-to-wire to become world champion.

Jumalon, who has never won a WSOP bracelet of any kind before, has seen almost the entirety of the $46,137 staked on Polymarket either for him to win or not win the Main, with $35,944 invested on the site in his name to date. Even if he was to double up the two shortest stacks at the table in the first orbit, he would have almost double Hammoud’s chips.

Could Experience Win the Day?

With seven players at the final table who have never previous won a WSOP event of any kind, could final table experience be vital in deciding the fate of this year’s World Championship bracelet? There’s an argument to be put forward to that end. Both Greg Mueller (3) and Michael Gagliano (4) haven’t just won single bracelets but claimed gold on multiple occasions as the only two previous bracelet winners in the hunt.

The two previous champions’ stacks are similar in size, with Mueller’s stack of 48.5m marginally ahead of ‘Gags’ stack, which totals 46.5m. With seven bracelet wins between them, both Mueller and Gagliano have the game to deal with the fame the final table brings, but which one of them would we back?

The Polymarket odds are a useful guide here on who to back. Mueller has only had $342 invested in him to date, and as a more vocal and gregarious personality, that is reflected in punter reticence. Gagliano, by comparison, is five times more interesting to Polymarket backers, with $1,865 staked on Gags to date. The American is rated at 13% for the win, a clear 3% higher than Mueller despite having fewer chips.

The Fate of Feng

Between them, the other six players at the final table of the WSOP Main Event have been invested in to the tune of $7,986. Of that total, however, a gargantuan proportion of it – $6,065 to be precise – has been placed on Han Feng to either win or lose the Main Event. Feng, who sits second-bottom of the counts on just 25,000,000 chips. That equates to just 17 big blinds, so why the massive activity in betting terms?

We believe that Feng might be attracting investors – or offsettors – on the basis that he is a ‘go big or go home’ kind of player. Earlier in the Main Event, Feng was a prevalent stack near the top of the counts and with a big pile of chips. He used that stack well and if he gets back to a position of strength, then Feng could be a real player. Perhaps that is why his result is attracting a disproportionate amount of interest among Polymarket bettors.

By comparison, just $81 has been invested in Canadian second-place player Rami Hammoud, who has a bigger chip stack than seven opponents and eliminated Shaun Deeb just outside the final table.  Proportionately, Mario Boos from France has been backed or laid to the tune of $1,009 and he sits in the middle ranks. Could it be because the Frenchmen’s lack of experience has led to perceptions that he might blow up if put under pressure? We’ll find out next week one way or the other.

Whatever happens, the final table of the 2026 WSOP Main Event is sure to be box office action and kicks off on ESPN on August 3^rd.