Tight Poker

[terminal]

This guy had about a 67% VPIP and was pre-flop raising quite a bit but not going to showdown much. I thought for sure that river heart would get him to fold. Stupid play? Would anyone here have called my river bet with a AJ. I had about a 20% VPIP and had not done anything stupid up to this point. No way I could have called me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) TightPoker converter

CO ($9.15)
Hero ($16.35)
SB ($26.60)
BB ($5.25)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($23.85)
MP1 ($22.55)
MP2 ($35.75)
MP3 ($18.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds.

Flop: ($1.85) , , (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $2.

Turn: ($7.85) (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4.

River: ($15.85) (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8.6 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $8.60.

Final Pot: $33.05


UTG+1 has Jc Ac (one pair, aces).
Hero has Td 8d (high card, ace).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $33.05.

[sfustsh]

If I'm villain I can you down because I'm a moron, and what's more I feel like I have the best hand (which I do). At NL 25 this isn't likely to work.

[kedoran]

I read through your last posts and you have some huge leaks . This hand is just awfull. Dont CC preflop, dont bluff a fish, dont two barrel bluff a fish, dont three barrel bluff a fish. Never bluff anyone at that stake is probably not bad advice either.

[terminal]

I know, I will play solid for the entire session and then I get bright ideas like this.

[neverthink]

NL 25 this is probably bad, always. NL 100 you may well have got me off most hands except a flush. It looks like a flush draw, or at least a set/two pair on the turn. River is more suspect as it's limited to a flush and particularly the nut/2nd nut one, which you won't have most of the time. Calling the river is actually not nearly as bad as calling the turn.

[nlman]

Stupid play? Would anyone here have called my river bet with a AJ.

1) I wouldn't raise AJ preflop from UTG+1. So, if I was him, I'd go all the way with my top 2 pairs.
2) I would shut down in a raised put after the flop reraise if I had something similar to his hand.

But then, again, I am not 67% VIP donk. And yes, this was stupid play. No offense. Poker rule #1: DO NOT bluff 67% VIP donks. And if you do try to bluff someone, at least make sure it is belivable. Before you bluff think about what you are trying to represent here. AK? flush? Your play wasn't very typical for either of those hands (especially - the flush one). Also, keep in mind that when they DO belive that you have AK, yet they call or raise you, they may in fact have the same or a better hand.

Making random bets and hoping that they'll fold will only make you lose money in the long run. You've got to have strategy every time you bluff. You've got to look for the right opportunities and the right targets.

[neverthink]

Bluff sparingly. Just stick to doing it in small pots you raised preflop. If your flop bet gets called, throw it away. Other good times are when you have a lot of outs to improve but missed on the river, sometimes throw that last bet out there if you think he won't call and he doesn't look commited. Bluff is just one element of poker, don't build your game around it. Donks will call with anything, and smart players will read you too easily in the long run.

[ugignadl]

Bluff sparingly. Just stick to doing it in small pots you raised preflop. If your flop bet gets called, throw it away. Other good times are when you have a lot of outs to improve but missed on the river, sometimes throw that last bet out there if you think he won't call and he doesn't look commited. Bluff is just one element of poker, don't build your game around it. Donks will call with anything, and smart players will read you too easily in the long run.

This is very true. However, you can build the skill of representing, which is more dependent on what your opponent holds rather than yourself. As such, it is extremely situational. This makes it very hard to comment on a particular hand.

I just started playing some online poker mixed in with live play. Checking your claim NT, I ran a SQL query on the last 5k hands played at .5/1, 1/2, 2/4 (and the corresponding `deep' tables when they are open). 17% of the money I have won at these limits has been without a pair...

So I think you have to be careful bandying about with claims like this, but it is tru to be careful. Definitely high variance... could perhaps counter with how much money have I lost bluffing?

[nlman]

17% of the money I have won at these limits has been without a pair...
...
Definitely high variance... could perhaps counter with how much money have I lost bluffing?

Hehehe, I have similar stats I think

I think that if I don't count the obvious bluffing mistakes (such as not representing my hand correctly or bluffing the wrong people like the abovementioned donk), I win a lot more money when I bluff than I lose.

Sometimes I get obsessed with winning the pot at any cost that I don't stop to put myself into my opponent's position (and intelligence ) and evaluate my chances of a successful bluff. However, if I think my bluffs out throughly (i.e. when to bluff, how to bluff and when to stop bluffing), I am usually quite successful.