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variance or do I suck
Single table tournament strategy and discussionModerators: ihatejacks, Section Moderators, Moderators
variance or do I suck
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:06 am
Someone please answer this question for me. Here are my biggest losers tonight. Some beats and some not (oh, but when they are beats they are niiiiiice...
). Sorry for the length. Something isn't right here. I'd appreciate any help.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
Button (t1280)
SB (t1485)
BB (t2135)
UTG (t4425)
MP (t1195)
Hero (t2980)
Preflop: Hero is CO with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2955, 2 folds, BB calls t1910 (All-In).
Flop: (t4990)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4990)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4990)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4990
Results hidden below:
BB has Qs Qd (two pair, queens and sevens).
Hero has Ad Js (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: BB wins t3970. Hero wins t1020.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
Hero (t4990)
Button (t8510)
Preflop: Hero is BB with
,
.
Button raises to t1200, Hero raises to t4965, Button calls t3765.
Flop: (t9930)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t9930)
(2 players)
River: (t9930)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t9930
Results hidden below:
Hero has As Jh (three of a kind, tens).
Button has Qd Ad (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: Button wins t9930.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t10633)
Hero (t2867)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
Hero raises to t2817, BB calls t2217.
Flop: (t5084)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t5084)
(2 players)
River: (t5084)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t5084
Results hidden below:
BB has Ad Th (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ah Jh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins t5084.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (3 handed) TightPoker converter
SB (t3550)
Hero (t2770)
Button (t7180)
Preflop: Hero is BB with
,
.
1 fold, SB raises to t3500, Hero calls t1920 (All-In).
Flop: (t5520)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t5520)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t5520)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t5520
Results hidden below:
SB has Kd 9s (full house, sixes full of nines).
Hero has Ks Qh (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: SB wins t5520.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t2160)
MP1 (t1245)
MP2 (t3037)
Hero (t1445)
Button (t1585)
SB (t2190)
BB (t1838)
Preflop: Hero is CO with
,
.
3 folds, Hero raises to t1420, Button raises to t1560, 2 folds.
Flop: (t3105)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t3105)
(2 players)
River: (t3105)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t3105
Results hidden below:
Hero has Kc Qd (one pair, queens).
Button has 9s Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Button wins t3105.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t2295)
UTG (t1335)
MP1 (t3330)
MP2 (t1595)
CO (t1270)
Hero (t745)
SB (t2930)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
3 folds, CO raises to t1270, Hero calls t745 (All-In), 2 folds.
Flop: (t2315)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t2315)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2315)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t2315
Results hidden below:
CO has 9h Ah (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qs Kh (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t2315.
This is a misclick. Push the first time, I know.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t10460)
Hero (t3040)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
Hero raises to t1200, BB raises to t10435, Hero calls t1815 (All-In).
Flop: (t13450)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t13450)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t13450)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t13450
Results hidden below:
BB has Qd Td (one pair, tens).
Hero has Ah 9s (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins t13450.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (5 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t2180)
MP (t4895)
Hero (t2580)
SB (t1710)
BB (t2135)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2530, 1 fold, BB calls t1485 (All-In).
Flop: (t4215)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4215)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4215)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4215
Results hidden below:
Hero has 7c 7s (two pair, sevens and twos).
BB has 8h 8c (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: BB wins t3220. Hero wins t995.
Flips no good either way.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) TightPoker converter
SB (t1380)
BB (t1260)
UTG (t7950)
MP (t1220)
Hero (t1690)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1665, 1 fold, BB calls t1035 (All-In).
Flop: (t2800)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t2800)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2800)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t2800
Results hidden below:
BB has Ks Qh (two pair, kings and nines).
Hero has Jc Js (two pair, jacks and nines).
Outcome: BB wins t2195. Hero wins t605.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t1612)
MP1 (t2825)
MP2 (t1660)
CO (t2183)
Hero (t1025)
SB (t1780)
BB (t2415)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
3 folds, CO raises to t800, Hero raises to t1025, 2 folds, CO calls t225.
Flop: (t2350)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t2350)
(2 players)
River: (t2350)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t2350
Results hidden below:
CO has 6s 6d (flush, ten high).
Hero has Jc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t2350.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
MP (t3525)
CO (t1670)
Hero (t2415)
SB (t1767)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t2623)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, CO raises to t400, Hero raises to t2415, 2 folds, CO calls t1270 (All-In).
Flop: (t4385)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4385)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4385)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4385
Results hidden below:
CO has Qh Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Kc Ad (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t3640. Hero wins t745.
Jeezus even 32o is listed as one of my biggest losers because I keep getting it Over and Over and Over again in my BB when the blinds are huge.
/bitchrant
/end life
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
Button (t1280)
SB (t1485)
BB (t2135)
UTG (t4425)
MP (t1195)
Hero (t2980)
Preflop: Hero is CO with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2955, 2 folds, BB calls t1910 (All-In).
Flop: (t4990)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4990)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4990)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4990
Results hidden below:
BB has Qs Qd (two pair, queens and sevens).
Hero has Ad Js (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: BB wins t3970. Hero wins t1020.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
Hero (t4990)
Button (t8510)
Preflop: Hero is BB with
,
.
Button raises to t1200, Hero raises to t4965, Button calls t3765.
Flop: (t9930)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t9930)
(2 players)
River: (t9930)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t9930
Results hidden below:
Hero has As Jh (three of a kind, tens).
Button has Qd Ad (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: Button wins t9930.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t10633)
Hero (t2867)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
Hero raises to t2817, BB calls t2217.
Flop: (t5084)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t5084)
(2 players)
River: (t5084)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t5084
Results hidden below:
BB has Ad Th (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ah Jh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins t5084.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (3 handed) TightPoker converter
SB (t3550)
Hero (t2770)
Button (t7180)
Preflop: Hero is BB with
,
.
1 fold, SB raises to t3500, Hero calls t1920 (All-In).
Flop: (t5520)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t5520)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t5520)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t5520
Results hidden below:
SB has Kd 9s (full house, sixes full of nines).
Hero has Ks Qh (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: SB wins t5520.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t2160)
MP1 (t1245)
MP2 (t3037)
Hero (t1445)
Button (t1585)
SB (t2190)
BB (t1838)
Preflop: Hero is CO with
,
.
3 folds, Hero raises to t1420, Button raises to t1560, 2 folds.
Flop: (t3105)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t3105)
(2 players)
River: (t3105)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t3105
Results hidden below:
Hero has Kc Qd (one pair, queens).
Button has 9s Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Button wins t3105.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t2295)
UTG (t1335)
MP1 (t3330)
MP2 (t1595)
CO (t1270)
Hero (t745)
SB (t2930)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
3 folds, CO raises to t1270, Hero calls t745 (All-In), 2 folds.
Flop: (t2315)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t2315)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2315)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t2315
Results hidden below:
CO has 9h Ah (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qs Kh (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t2315.
This is a misclick. Push the first time, I know.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) TightPoker converter
BB (t10460)
Hero (t3040)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
Hero raises to t1200, BB raises to t10435, Hero calls t1815 (All-In).
Flop: (t13450)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t13450)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t13450)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t13450
Results hidden below:
BB has Qd Td (one pair, tens).
Hero has Ah 9s (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins t13450.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (5 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t2180)
MP (t4895)
Hero (t2580)
SB (t1710)
BB (t2135)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2530, 1 fold, BB calls t1485 (All-In).
Flop: (t4215)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4215)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4215)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4215
Results hidden below:
Hero has 7c 7s (two pair, sevens and twos).
BB has 8h 8c (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: BB wins t3220. Hero wins t995.
Flips no good either way.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) TightPoker converter
SB (t1380)
BB (t1260)
UTG (t7950)
MP (t1220)
Hero (t1690)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1665, 1 fold, BB calls t1035 (All-In).
Flop: (t2800)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t2800)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2800)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t2800
Results hidden below:
BB has Ks Qh (two pair, kings and nines).
Hero has Jc Js (two pair, jacks and nines).
Outcome: BB wins t2195. Hero wins t605.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) TightPoker converter
UTG (t1612)
MP1 (t2825)
MP2 (t1660)
CO (t2183)
Hero (t1025)
SB (t1780)
BB (t2415)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
3 folds, CO raises to t800, Hero raises to t1025, 2 folds, CO calls t225.
Flop: (t2350)
,
,
(2 players)
Turn: (t2350)
(2 players)
River: (t2350)
(2 players)
Final Pot: t2350
Results hidden below:
CO has 6s 6d (flush, ten high).
Hero has Jc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t2350.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
MP (t3525)
CO (t1670)
Hero (t2415)
SB (t1767)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t2623)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
,
.
2 folds, CO raises to t400, Hero raises to t2415, 2 folds, CO calls t1270 (All-In).
Flop: (t4385)
,
,
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4385)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4385)
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4385
Results hidden below:
CO has Qh Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Kc Ad (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins t3640. Hero wins t745.
Jeezus even 32o is listed as one of my biggest losers because I keep getting it Over and Over and Over again in my BB when the blinds are huge.
/bitchrant
/end life
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
by if1995 » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:39 am
i think it's pretty standard. it sounds cold blooded but that poker, there is still a lot of chances (rather than luck :=)) involved.
what you are experiencing is called running bad. when you are running bad, nothing goes right. i experience that quite a bit myself. i would take couple days off and get out the zone for a while and come back fresh.
finally, make a kill when you run "good".
what you are experiencing is called running bad. when you are running bad, nothing goes right. i experience that quite a bit myself. i would take couple days off and get out the zone for a while and come back fresh.
finally, make a kill when you run "good".
- if1995
- Fish
- Posts: 38
- Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:30 am
by mattaca » Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:39 am
The only ones I 'may' play differently but are not completely wrong are the first and last hands. The first a raise of 3-4x the BB would have the same effect as an allin and would give you a chance to evaluate if pushed back at.
I might also play the AK in the last hand differently but any reraise and he's pushing so you're getting it allin preflop regardless so no big deal.
Thats a tough run of cards.
I might also play the AK in the last hand differently but any reraise and he's pushing so you're getting it allin preflop regardless so no big deal.
Thats a tough run of cards.
-

mattaca - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:39 am
by randy72560 » Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:31 am
Some of those hands don't have to be open raised all in. You still had some time and chips. A standard raise would have given you the same info. Also, some of it was just the right move at the wrong time.
Stick to your game man, but you might tone down the aggressiveness in the non-turbos. Remember that you don't have to push and fold all the time. Don't be afraid to take a flop and out play them there.
Over time, flop play is what wil seperate you from the average poker players. Anyone can push or fold preflop, but not everyone can out smart others on the flop.
Stick to your game man, but you might tone down the aggressiveness in the non-turbos. Remember that you don't have to push and fold all the time. Don't be afraid to take a flop and out play them there.
Over time, flop play is what wil seperate you from the average poker players. Anyone can push or fold preflop, but not everyone can out smart others on the flop.
-

randy72560 - Moderator
- Posts: 1574
- Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:38 pm
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:35 am
Oh, all these are turbos. And on that first hand, effective stacks are about 11BB or less. Just my luck the biggest stack woke up with QQ.
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
by sfustsh » Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:11 pm
God that's a lot of hands, here goes
1: 15 BB, what the hell are you doing shoving? I prefer 600 and I can call a shove with reads.
2: Another Headsup no no
3: This one's fine since you have a little over 4 BB
4: This one you gotta call with the blinds so huge, his range is nearly ATC
5: You realize that with SEVEN people left the blinds are not as huge as they are with 4, so a shove here is unneccessary. In fact I even prefer a limp to a raise with this hand, with folding the best option.
6: Little more standard.
7: This one seems alright too
8: Fine with 4 BB
9: Once UTG folds this is an good move. It's an even BETTER move if he's just to your left, since he'll call and likely shut out anyone else. Either way it wouldn't take 8 BB to get my money in with Jacks, I'd play this hand strong with 15+ BB. But I just love jacks =)
10: Here I actually prefer a fold. Again it's 7 handed so you're not in the danger zone, and it's already been opened so you don't get any FE.
11: Okay after his minraise.
1: 15 BB, what the hell are you doing shoving? I prefer 600 and I can call a shove with reads.
2: Another Headsup no no
3: This one's fine since you have a little over 4 BB
4: This one you gotta call with the blinds so huge, his range is nearly ATC
5: You realize that with SEVEN people left the blinds are not as huge as they are with 4, so a shove here is unneccessary. In fact I even prefer a limp to a raise with this hand, with folding the best option.
6: Little more standard.
7: This one seems alright too
8: Fine with 4 BB
9: Once UTG folds this is an good move. It's an even BETTER move if he's just to your left, since he'll call and likely shut out anyone else. Either way it wouldn't take 8 BB to get my money in with Jacks, I'd play this hand strong with 15+ BB. But I just love jacks =)
10: Here I actually prefer a fold. Again it's 7 handed so you're not in the danger zone, and it's already been opened so you don't get any FE.
11: Okay after his minraise.
-

sfustsh - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 2127
- Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:57 pm
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:30 pm
MewsicLovr wrote:And on that first hand, effective stacks are about 11BB or less. Just my luck the biggest stack woke up with QQ.
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:45 pm
I feel pretty silly having to explain this. I'm saying this in the nicest way possible. If you don't know what's going on please don't post.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
Button (t1280)
SB (t1485)
BB (t2135)
UTG (t4425)
MP (t1195)
Hero (t2980)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Adiamond, Jspade.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2955, 2 folds, BB calls t1910 (All-In).
Flop: (t4990) 7club, 4diamond, 7spade (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4990) 2heart (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4990) Theart (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4990
Everyone left to act has 11BB or less. This push is insanely +EV.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) TightPoker converter
Button (t1280)
SB (t1485)
BB (t2135)
UTG (t4425)
MP (t1195)
Hero (t2980)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Adiamond, Jspade.
2 folds, Hero raises to t2955, 2 folds, BB calls t1910 (All-In).
Flop: (t4990) 7club, 4diamond, 7spade (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4990) 2heart (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4990) Theart (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4990
Everyone left to act has 11BB or less. This push is insanely +EV.
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:53 pm
That's not to say I played the other ones perfectly - I really doubt it - but I'm pretty sure the first one is correct.
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
by sfustsh » Tue Nov 28, 2006 1:21 pm
MewsicLovr wrote:That's not to say I played the other ones perfectly - I really doubt it - but I'm pretty sure the first one is correct.
LOL! Sorry ML, I know the concept you're talking about, but I've just not heard the phrase effective stacks used that way. An oversight, on my part.
Anyway let's not get into a cat fight *displaying claws*
-

sfustsh - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 2127
- Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:57 pm
by mattaca » Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:49 pm
Music what some of us are saying though (as my post said earlier) is that a 600-800 raise has the same effect (and often makes you look stronger) than the allin move. You are basically telling your opponent that you are pot committed after the flop but are happy to have one of them come in with you.
I wasn't saying your play was completely incorrect, but that there are other ways to play it.
I wasn't saying your play was completely incorrect, but that there are other ways to play it.
-

mattaca - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:39 am
by mewsiclovr » Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:53 pm
Everything I've been told is if you are going to raise and you have < 10BB, then push.
Are you saying this philosophy is wrong? If it is, I will gladly change my game up. But it goes against everything I know about turbos.
Are you saying this philosophy is wrong? If it is, I will gladly change my game up. But it goes against everything I know about turbos.
-

mewsiclovr - Whale Hunter
- Posts: 3418
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:20 am
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