Tight Poker

[micloren]

I'm not a limit player, and this is going to look results oriented since I'm posting after you put up the results, but I was thinking it this morning and just didn't have time to post. I don't see how you CAN'T raise the river after he bets. Putting him on J8 and then just calling is weeeeeeak/tight. You need to squeeze every bet you can out of a limit game because it's so damn swingy.

I can't say i agree with this. The villian played this hand like a straight ... he also BO on the river like he had a straight. If you are wrong then you lose 3 bets instead of 1.

IMO ... the villian played this hand very shitty (now knowing he had TT). Most competent players are not going to bet out this river. So the way i look at it is:

80% of the time you lose or split pot here (based on how the villian played the hand) ... 20% you win. The only time i bet here is if he checks ... and if he happens to check raise then you still only lose 2 bets instead of 3.

[biggle10]

I raise the river. Lots of hands that you beat.

[mattaca]

I raise the river. Lots of hands that you beat.

[poormanbilly]

I can't say i agree with this. The villian played this hand like a straight

My argument against this is that:
#1. The odds of him having J8 are pretty low.
#2. You don't have enough information to think he has a straight just because he checked raised the turn and bet out on the river. Lots of hands do that ranging from air, two pair, and on up.
#3. It's hard for him to put you on the straight.

[micloren]

I can't say i agree with this. The villian played this hand like a straight

My argument against this is that:
#1. The odds of him having J8 are pretty low.
#2. You don't have enough information to think he has a straight just because he checked raised the turn and bet out on the river. Lots of hands do that ranging from air, two pair, and on up.
#3. It's hard for him to put you on the straight.

No competent player should bet that river unless they have a straight. Unless i have good evidence that villian is not competent and probably doesn't have a straight i dont see how you can raise here.

You only win with this play against an idiot IMO and sometimes you just tie.

Just my opinion though...

[biggle10]

Villain isn't going to put hero on an 8.

[poormanbilly]

You only win with this play against an idiot IMO and sometimes you just tie.

So you tie most of the time, lose rarely, and win against an idiot sometimes? That's good enough for me.

[micloren]

Villain isn't going to put hero on an 8.

Thats the first thing i'd put him on.

[biggle10]

OK, let's play this hand from villain's perspective.

CO raises. CO probably has some paint, maybe Ax, pocket pair. ATC is possible if this is a steal raise.
Button folds.
SB calls.
I call.

Great flop for me. I have superb position to CR. SB leads? Well he might have an 8 or QJ, J8 seems an unlikely hand to cold call from the SB. Anyways, I'm ahead so I'll smooth call and pop a safe turn. Perhaps the CO will raise and I can 3-bet. CO raised. CO might have AT, QJ, or big pair.

Turn: What a good card for me. Time to punish them. SB leads. Hmmm, doesn't seem consistant with an 8. Perhaps SB has smaller set. That'd be sweet. SB might have turned a flush draw too. Raise it up. CO calls? Looks like an overpair that is getting stubborn and is going to call down. SB folds? Well, maybe he didn't have a draw after all.

River: River isn't spectacular, and villain could have an 8, but villain could also have JJ-AA, AT, 99, 77, AK. Value bet baby. CO raises? Well, crying call.

[shun]

As the play went I think I would of folded the turn, your two pair/trip outs may not be any good and the 8 outs for a straight are only 4.75:1. Your pot odds are about 4.5:1, 5:1 if the SB calls and you might be drawing dead as the BB has played his hand quite consitently for a straight.

I call the river because I do think Hero can have an 8 pretty often. I can see the reasoning for raising the river but it's tough to put the BB on a hand that calls a bet and then calls a raise on the flop and then raises the open-bet by the SB on the turn.

And while I think the river raise/call problem has merits, the biggest question is was the turn call correct to begin with. I think the times when your trip outs/pair outs are good are neutralized by the times the BB has a straight and your reverse implied odds are bad because the BB may already have a straight when you make it

[poormanbilly]

I call the river because I do think Hero can have an 8 pretty often.

Do you mean villain? I don't understand. Who cares if he has an 8 or not? At least sometimes he won't. Isn't that enough?

[shun]

I call the river because I do think Hero can have an 8 pretty often.

Do you mean villain? I don't understand. Who cares if he has an 8 or not? At least sometimes he won't. Isn't that enough?

Sorry, I rewrote that part of the post but forgot to reread it for sensbility.

I meant to make a point that I think Villain should think that Hero/LW/CO has an 8 pretty often enough to not bet a hand like two pair, TPTK, or even a set and therefore may have the nuts a fair percent of the time when he does bet.

So, Hero/LW/CO should just call and not raise the river.

In comtemplating the situation, there are a few outcomes if you raise vs. call.

1. Villain has air and is bluffing, so a raise will not gain you any value. (+0BB)
2. Villain has some sort of pair and will fold to a raise because it is clear you have to have him beat on that board (most likely by a straight). (+0BB)
3. Villain has some sort of holding between a pair and the nuts that will call your raise but not re-raise you when behind. (+1BB)
4. Villain is stupid and will re-raise you with a non straight hand that you have beat and you will gain extra value but will only be calling the 3-bet. (+2BB)
5. Villain does have the nut straight and will re-raise you. (-2BB)
6. Villain has the same straight and you will chop. (+0BB)

I'm going too far in depth with this analysis for no good reason when there is a clear answer behind the probabilties, so to finish up.

Presuming the probability of #3 is twice as likely as the probability of number #5, you should raise. and I'd have to say number 3 is somewhere around 60% and number 5 is somewhere around 20%, so you should raise.

So after all that I can see changing my mind but I'm probably being results-oriented here. I think before I saw the guy have TT #5 could of been around 40%.

[LadyWrestler]

You cannot find this stuff in poker books. Thank you, guys, for the great discussion!!! Very informative!