The first episode of "What hand does Goofy have?"

[goofyballer]

You are Mousey. You're TAG, and you know Goofyballer's game inside and out. You have literally played thousands of hands with Goofyballer, talk with him on AIM while doing so, and you pretty much both know each others' games inside and out.

$50 NL on Party. You're in CO with and a $120 stack. Goofyballer limps UTG with $90 in front of him. HUGE donkey limps UTG+1 with a $140 stack. This guy calls all preflop raises and calls down a lot after the flop. You raise to $3. SB, a very loose player who also calls every preflop raise and almost always check-folds the flop, calls as well (~$70 stack). Goofyballer calls, huge donkey calls.

Flop ($12):

Goofyballer bets out $5; huge donkey folds. You... (decision point #1: What should Mousey do here? What hands are in Goofy's range?)

Please think about this and your response before reading the next part (highlight below to see), which has Mousey's response and another decision point.


As played, Mousey raises to $15. SB folds, Goofy calls.

Turn ($40): Two of Spades

Goofyballer bets out $20. You... (decision point #2: What should Mousey do here? What hands are in Goofy's range?)

Results later...discuss.

[lsutiger]

Limp in EP could mean small PP (99 -) or AQ, or AJs, ATs. Maybe a high SC (JTs+), but not likely.

Half pot bet is a feeler or a teaser. I would say AJs as you are ahead of KK-TT, but losing to AA, AK, and AQ. If it is not a feeler, then you have a set (88 or 55), but I discount this severely as you are giving the flush draw odds to call and this is not the situation you want

Mousey should re-raise at least the pot to see where he is at. Looking at the next action, I still hold the same line and push another pot sized bet.

[cavman]

mousey either has a set, or a combo draw (either 67s or 8xs). i think a set of 5's is the most likely. i like the flop raise, except i'd make it a little closer to a pot-sized raise. i don't think flat-calling is terrible in this spot either.

given that turn, you're beat about 90% of the time. Just call the turn drawing to the nut flush, and fold on the river if you don't improve.

[puckhead23]

I would have made the exact raise Mousey did on the flop (I like 3x; gets good information). Goofy's call got my attention. UTG limp from Goofy with a call is screaming mid PP or big Ace to me, AK maybe. The smooth call of the raise eliminates big Ace, 99, TT, JJ. I think my TPTK is no good against a solid player, so I'm really fearing 88. Now to the turn......

On the turn, Goofy is betting big on me with the appearance of the third spade. He is trying to protect his hand. The only hand that makes sense to me from a TAG is 88, unless he is on a bluff, which I don't believe. Mousey has played the hand great so far; Goofy would have laid down crap by now. I've got 8 outs (9 spades except ), so not even 5:1 odds to improve my hand. I'm not convinced that my Aces are outs. I might split w/ AK, and have a long shot of beating it with a spade on the river.

I'd have to release the hand here, unless I believe Goofy has AQ (which I don't). Nice bet Goofy.

[darkdenim]

Goofy has :Js: and is juicing up the pot with his flop bet
The bet is actually nothing but a 'feeler' bet as he's trying to get some info. He now knows for sure that Mousey has AK given the 3x raise. There's a straight and flush draw on the board so if Mousey had AA he would've killed any draws with a huge raise.

[scottie_g]

Well, I am throwing out 2 pair and a set immediately because I think (or hope) Goofy would have bet more on the flop initially to protect his hand. The small bet to me means Goofy is on some kind of a draw, and wants to see the turn card cheaper. Mousy throws in a pot size raise to protect his AK, but Goofy calls.

Hmm.. Goofy has good understanding of pot odds/implied odds so he knows he is not getting proper odds to call this bet, even when factoring in implied odds. The call after the raise may be a little loose, but I guess it's possible.. but I don't see Goofy doing this.

However, Goofy might have sensed that Mousey has something like AK and is not worried about another spade coming out... so he might be slowplaying a set or 2 pair. OK lets, go with that.

Lets go with

[scottie_g]

One other thought.

I do what Goofy did right here sometimes, but in late position. I like to call it the "call bluff." I call a raise in late position, knowing that if a scare card falls on the turn, the TAG player will have enough disipline to lay down the hand... regardless of what hand I actually have. Possible call-bluff by Goofy here trying to be slick.

[scotty1139]

Some key info:

Goofyballer rarely limps at $50NL, especially from UTG or EP. What was the texture of the table? Knowing that might help you narrow his hand range a bit.

[goofyballer]

That's not ENTIRELY true...my VPIP is ~25 and my PFR 7-8, so about 17% of hands are limpers for me. My Complete from SB is ~44 though, so that might account for some of VPIP; still, limping isn't unheard of. That said, a lot of my "looser" limps are in LP to try to see a cheap flop or to play against crappy players. Mousey knows all of this. I'm also very aggressive (agg factor ~ 4).

[miamipuck]

GoofyDonk probably has 6-7 suited or something.

[mattaca]

GoofyDonk probably has 6-7 suited or something.

Thats was my original thought as well.

[miamipuck]

GoofyDonk probably has 6-7 suited or something.

Thats was my original thought as well.

Yup Goofy being a donk was definitely the 1st. thing that came to mind.

[goofyballer]

How is having 76s and being a favorite (with my 15 out draw) being a donk? I actually had...



for a pair + FD and pwned Mousey with my flush.

[mousey]

How is having 76s and being a favorite (with my 15 out draw) being a donk? I actually had...



for a pair + FD and pwned Mousey with my flush.

You mean flush DRAW; of which is 9 outs. 8 if I have a spade.

[goofyballer]

Huh?? Miami said that if I had 76s, I would be playing like a donk, but 76s would have a 15 out draw on that board. As played, my 87s still had a 13.75 (.75 = for the 1/4 times you have the Ks) out draw to beat your AK.