The first episode of "What hand does Goofy have?"

[mousey]

Well,

Let me give you my analysis of the hand from my perspective, and hopefully it will provide some discussion room.

First let me present all available data that I used during my play and describe the situation. Lots of big stacks and half the table was LAG and big time fish except me and goof. I had played about 250 hands with all these players.

This was the table at the time and the positions with the stack counts.

Seat 1: SAFC100 ( $140.62 )
Seat 2: Rhapsodus ( $115.55 )
Seat 3: kingamongmen ( $41.67 )
Seat 4: almohi1 ( $37.87 )
Seat 5: rodellc ( $50 )
Seat 6: goofyballr ( $88.88 )

almohi1 posts small blind [$0.25].
rodellc posts big blind [$0.50].

Here were the players styles and general information.

Safc100: Loose passive all the way. Very sporadic play. vpip of 66% went to showdown 40% and won$ at showdown 32%. This was the biggest fish at the table. He randomly bets large and always bluffs when checked to. Easily trapped and plays every 2 cards. His style of play meant variance. But it also meant that he would occassionally hit a big pot.

Goofyballr: TAG. Enough said you all know him. 18% vpip.
Me: TAG. Enough said you all know me. 18% vpip.

almohi1 : Calls everything kind of person but rarely wins. Vpip 75% 41.36 went to showdown and wins $ 28.8%. 0.48 aggression. Would rarely bet but simply called called called.

rodellc: Bit smarter preflop but just as dumb postflop. Calls any draw and everydraw despite odds. vpip 33% won$ showdown: 25% and went to showdown 35.42% Aggro 1.91

kingamongmen : Another gambler. LOVED to raise and reraise and push people out. Calls everything preflop against raisers. Even 4+$ preflops. vpip 61% won$ 29% went to shodown 33.33%. Aggro 6!

Preflop:

Dealt to Rhapsodus [ ]
goofyballr calls [$0.50].
SAFC100 calls [$0.50].
Rhapsodus raises [$3].
kingamongmen folds.
almohi1 calls [$2.75].
rodellc folds.
goofyballr calls [$2.50].
SAFC100 calls [$2.50].

Goofy limped utg. This already tells me a lot about his hand. He wants to play a drawing hand; he wouldn't play decent hands against these guys for cheap so I know he has a drawing hand from the get go.

He could possibly have AJ, if he is trying to trap the LAG's and has a premium hand he is going to isolate depending on the number of callers. At this table there is usually 2-3 callers. I won't worry about it because when he reraises from his position I can bail later in the sequence and he would not limp reraise with shit. QQ, KK, or AA, and AKs. EV wise, this is an easy fold even with AK. Half the time I am dominated. A quarter of the time I am a coinflip. The other is a tie. I lose more than I win.

But for right now here is the range I can assume, since he didn't open raise I will take out his raising hands from UTG ( AA - TT/99 AKs-AQ ) which gives me:
QK, QKs, JK, JKs, JTs, AJ, AJs, 9Ts, Pocket Pair.

And being a smart player as he is I can possibly assume he would not be playing hands that are -EV from his position ( 1 ) everything that is weaker that QTs basically. http://www.tightpoker.com/hands/ev_position.html

But this is a 6 max table and so the EV is a little loose and seeing as our competition was pretty easy to hit a good pot against, a few hands that would be considered questionable like JQs is a possible play due to implied value of the fish.

So because goof is in I make the raise a little stronger than my usual 2$. This is because I have a damn good hand and I want to isolate. Goof wouldn't call such a large bet on a draw, so if he calls its a matter of knowing wether or not he set and a pocket pair is my prime suspect.

Goof wouldn't call with possibly dominated hands so I rule out hands like QK and JK if he calls not wanting to risk domination. So I raise and get 1 caller before it is his turn again with 1 person to act behind who calls quite often. Goof called and so did the big fish to my right.

I am suprised by goof's call. Usually he only calls with pockets in these situations. I would expect him to lay down suited connectors except for JTs though because he doesn't win enough times to warrant the play against a raise from me. So right now I rule out most hands under QTs and JQs.

My strongest read right now is a pocket pair.

Flop:

** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
almohi1 checks.
goofyballr bets [$5].
SAFC100 folds.
Rhapsodus raises [$15].
almohi1 folds.
goofyballr calls [$10].

I hit top pair top kicker ( If I run against AA o well ) with a nutt backdoor draw. I have a great hand. Not much beats me. Unless someone has 77 or 55 I am way ahead.

Here is where things get odd. Goof bets a half pot. Meaning he has maybe paired, but paired weakly. He would be protecting his hand against flush draws with 2 fish in the hand a bit stronger so I don't think much of his bet. He is betting a draw but I a simple raise will knock him off it.

5$ into a 12$ pot is a small bet for him to be making with a top pair or even a set with two spades showing and 2 fish in the hand.

My only thought here is that he may have AQ or something and is seeing if I have AK or a hand like QQ/KK. Since he may be attempting to trap the LAGs I can see him limping utg with a hand like AQ.

Either way he pushes the big fish out right away by doing this; which I got annoyed at. If goof had an honest hand he would check raise it because he knows I am GOING to continue bet this pot with the A showing. And I know that most fish will bail from a pot instantly if someone other than the preflop raiser open bets a pot.

Also by check raising he may get extra money into the pot by the collateral players who are out of position on this hand.

I am not afraid of much from him though as it stands right now. 68s maybe, but usually he lays it down even with a kick ass draw like 15 outs. After all why play roulette with me; I have a massive stack and if he is wrong about my hand or he is drawing dead.

So I raise to protect my hand. So I bet 15$ into a 17$ pot. This was my big mistake. I only protected myself from a base flush draw ( 9 outs ). I didn't give credit for anyone with combined draws.

I also forgot goof gets a 5$ discount and I am thinking to myself it would be 15 more for him to call; but in actuality it is only 10$ for him to call.

I should have bet 20+$ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If not gone all in right there which I often do.

All the fish fold and he smooth calls. His call to me was VERY QUESTIONABLE !!!! And at first I thought he had a set, but if he had a set I am sure he would have pushed it right there.

Here is why I find the flop call questionable.

My raising hands against this table: AA, AKs, AQs, AK, AQ, KK, QQ, JJ, any pocket, JKs, and QKs. The only pocket pairs I would continue bet with that are under Jacks would be a set. I would also raise the pot here with two spades to try and use my position for free cards. So I have a semi wide range of hands here still.

Now since this is an ev calculation I will reveal goof's hand which was a mid pair + flush draw. In Goof's perspective here is a quick ev calculation.

vrs. - 78s is 30% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 51% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 46% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 46% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 52% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 32% favorite
vrs. - 78s is 32% favorite

So the average would be: %41.28 of the time.
He is calling 10$ into a 19$ pot which is 52% of the pot.

But a lot of the times he is barely 2% ahead by the BEST CASE scenarios. He can not assume every out is live during play. This is a huge hole I have corrected some people on ( ERUU!!!! ) who count outs as pure live outs all the time. If I had a spade then the flush happens even less.

If I had raised QKs I just hit the nutt flush against his lower flush. Often times this is where I stack a lot of people. Goof told me he was pretty sure I had AK but in my opinion this is a bad assumption to make. It just so happens he was correct that time.

Even with his read I don't know why hes playing into me He already put in 8$ and now its going to be 20$ of his money before he has even made his hand. What if the turn comes up blank ? Folding off ?

TURN:

** Dealing Turn ** [ , , , ]
goofyballr bets [$20].
Rhapsodus calls [$20].

I know this is a shit call. I only win 15% of the time to flushes; and I have no implied odds to other flushes but I was pissed at him and I am gambling for the nutt flush now. Against fish I easily fold.

I might get a chance to get a free showdown by smooth calling trying to represent a higher flush and this is my only goal now. I don't know what he has but I would be shocked to see him drawing to a flush so in my mind I may still be ahead if he hasn't set. It may even be a split pot.
Goof might be testing me but I am pretty sure I am behind and this is a shit call. I do not recommend this play.

I would like to think that goof didn't have much implied odds on the flop to call on a draw; but he got 20$ call on the turn because I had the Ks. I know the 'implied odds' excuse is out there on a lot of hand discussions but most people don't play with it correctly.

Even us mathy types like to fuck around and gamble at times. I mean come on ! I am calling a massive bet with a flush showing. His big bet also means he is getting a little scared and would rather win the pot right here.

If I did not have that spade though I would have easily folded on the turn. I still should have folded but that is a different issue.

RIVER:

** Dealing River ** [ , , , , ]
goofyballr is all-In.
Rhapsodus folds.
goofyballr does not show cards.

Goof pushes out of position and I fold. Easy fold here Boy are you lucky I didn't have my JKs or QKs or another spade came up.

My biggest mistake: NOT RAISING ENOUGH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My 15$ pot bet was miscalculated on the flop and should have been 20$ bet making a 15$ call on the flop to REALLY be -ev for pair + flush draw kind of draws. But because it was 10$ to call Goofy needed an 11$ pot for a 13+ out hand. However a 20$ call requires a 22$ pot for a 13 outer.

Thats ok though, he can keep calling me with his fancy smancy drawing hands I expect a future episode lol Which is funny because in talking to him about it he has said stuff like "thats why suited connectors are so great, implied this implied that, sneaky trick hands, yadda yadda" and to me its just like saying I should call with any 2 cards cause when I get a kick ass draw and hit I will take a big pot !!!

For some reason that seems like a 'luck' strategy and not a mathematical one.

[goofyballer]

LMAO, I am absolutely cracking up, I have never seen an entire post that is really just an insanely lengthy backhanded compliment

[cavman]

mousey,

1-the range you think people should put you on is pretty ridiculous. it's very easy to put you on AK.

2-i don't mind the call on the turn, as long as you know you are drawing and not ahead (which you did)

3-it seems like you must go broke to a set almost anytime you hit with AK or have an overpair.

[goofyballer]

And being a smart player as he is I can possibly assume he would not be playing hands that are -EV from his position ( 1 ) everything that is weaker that QTs basically. http://www.tightpoker.com/hands/ev_position.html

Backhanded compliment #1! Those EVs are all for limit poker, douche. The implied odds of playing a suited connector against those two fish with so much money already in the pot was massive to me; calling preflop is the only part of the hand I even consider remotely questionable, emphasis on the "remotely."

Here is where things get odd. Goof bets a half pot. Meaning he has maybe paired, but paired weakly. He would be protecting his hand against flush draws with 2 fish in the hand a bit stronger so I don't think much of his bet. He is betting a draw but I a simple raise will knock him off it.

...

Either way he pushes the big fish out right away by doing this; which I got annoyed at. If goof had an honest hand he would check raise it because he knows I am GOING to continue bet this pot with the A showing. And I know that most fish will bail from a pot instantly if someone other than the preflop raiser open bets a pot.

I disagree with the last sentence; the reason I bet out was specifically because I wanted to keep the fish in. If I check-raised, SAFC was folding anything but the best hands - he wasn't that retarded. That's why I bet out a small amount, hoping to trap him into calling before your inevitable raise. Almohi is an uber-calling station and I figured was perfectly likely to cold-call a raise. I wanted as many people as possible in this hand; apparently they didn't have much worth calling with, which is unfortunate.

I am not afraid of much from him though as it stands right now. 68s maybe, but usually he lays it down even with a kick ass draw like 15 outs. After all why play roulette with me; I have a massive stack and if he is wrong about my hand or he is drawing dead.

WTF? Laying down 15 outs = -EV. And don't even pretend like you put me on 86s, you said a million times you didn't think that was in my range.

All the fish fold and he smooth calls. His call to me was VERY QUESTIONABLE !!!! And at first I thought he had a set, but if he had a set I am sure he would have pushed it right there.

That would be retarded. You fold AK, and call with AA. I make no money from pushing.

...long pointless EV calculations...


So the average would be: %41.28 of the time.
He is calling 10$ into a 19$ pot which is 52% of the pot.

But a lot of the times he is barely 2% ahead by the BEST CASE scenarios. He can not assume every out is live during play. This is a huge hole I have corrected some people on ( ERUU!!!! ) who count outs as pure live outs all the time. If I had a spade then the flush happens even less.

If I had raised QKs I just hit the nutt flush against his lower flush. Often times this is where I stack a lot of people. Goof told me he was pretty sure I had AK but in my opinion this is a bad assumption to make. It just so happens he was correct that time.

First, the bottom part: Assuming you have AK is not a "bad assumption." I can go post this hand on 2+2 and ten people will respond in about an hour saying "villain has AK." You played it like a textbook ace king. You do not have AA, you do not have KQs, you do not have JJ, you do not have 77. It was entirely obvious and not a "lucky read."

Now, because I knew you had AK, I knew that I could make you lay it down. Why? Because you're smart enough to know that I'm not coming over the top of you with hands that can't beat AK. You know that I would never, in a million years, push AQ, or 66, or some other crap hand that doesn't beat you. So, you take your AK and fold. When I initially bet out, I was trying to take the fish along for a ride; when you raised and they both folded, I was less interested in the hand, but still had very good odds to outdraw you.

Even us mathy types like to fuck around and gamble at times. I mean come on ! I am calling a massive bet with a flush showing. His big bet also means he is getting a little scared and would rather win the pot right here.

Are you kidding? Half the pot means I'm scared? That's a value bet right there baby.

Goof pushes out of position and I fold. Easy fold here Boy are you lucky I didn't have my JKs or QKs or another spade came up.

OBVIOUSLY I'M REALLY LUCKY BECAUSE IF ANOTHER SPADE CAME I TOTALLY WOULD HAVE OPEN PUSHED ANYWAY LIKE A DUMB FISH, AND BECAUSE YOU OBVIOUSLY COULD HAVE HAD KING QUEEN SUITED FROM THE WAY YOU PLAYED THIS HAND...DURRRRRR

For some reason that seems like a 'luck' strategy and not a mathematical one.

Quit your whining because I won the hand, if you want to call it a 'luck' strategy than go do some math to prove that it was a bad decision and get back to me, otherwise stfu.

[bigdil511]

I thought goofy was a "donk" (according to miami) so I thought he had something like pocket 2's and thought they were gold

[mousey]

...
I disagree with the last sentence; the reason I bet out was specifically because I wanted to keep the fish in. If I check-raised, SAFC was folding anything but the best hands - he wasn't that retarded. That's why I bet out a small amount, hoping to trap him into calling before your inevitable raise. Almohi is an uber-calling station and I figured was perfectly likely to cold-call a raise. I wanted as many people as possible in this hand; apparently they didn't have much worth calling with, which is unfortunate.


If you raised and the guy after you called, I would have hammered that pot so much harder than I did. And I don't know, but generally this is what I see:

Person A raises. Fish calls Person B calls. Person C Calls.
Flop: Person B leads out betting. Fish generally fold in this situation.
as compared to:
Flop: Checked to Person A. Person A continue bets.


Don't be results oriented goof. I am not whining. I was giving a detailed post on what I did wrong and why I believe that your play wasn't of the optimal strategy.

And your right. It is totally impossible for me to be playing QKs or JQs that way.

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Rhapsodus [ Qh Jh ]
rodellc folds.
goofyballr folds.
SAFC100 calls [$0.50].
Rhapsodus raises [$2].
kingamongmen folds.
almohi1 folds.
SAFC100 calls [$1.50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, 9h, 2s ]
SAFC100 checks.
Rhapsodus bets [$3].
SAFC100 calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
SAFC100 bets [$6].
Rhapsodus raises [$20].
SAFC100 folds.
Rhapsodus does not show cards.
Rhapsodus wins $35.65

[goofyballer]

Hey, if you want to start calling my raises and pot sized reraises on suited connectors go for it. I don't think youll get far with that strategy.

Hey, as long as you keep calling my half-pot value bets when I hit I've got implied odds as far as the eye can see

[mousey]

Hey, as long as you keep calling my half-pot value bets when I hit I've got implied odds as far as the eye can see

Yeah thats a different issue at hand. What I am saying is playing those kinds of hands based on " I have good draws" ends up trapping you pretty hard late in a hand sometimes and its a kind of hand where you push at the wrong time and end up getting stacked.

One: You could be second best hand drawing.
Two: You have to put in a lot of money before your hand is even secured.
Three: Your hand is VERY vulnerable even when it does hit.
Four: It is easy to trap drawers like that.
Five: If you don't hit by the turn your screwed.

I keep hearing this "implied implied implied" excuse. But this is a donkey way of thinking! Thats like saying 'If only I pick up a good hand/draw then I can rake in a lot of chips'. Thats true about any semi decent hand so what ends up happening is you call raises with those weak hands and have to fold off 9 out of 10 times. But that is also when FISH are raising. Not when a TAG is raising.

Ok so you win a 30$ pot once every 20 or so odd times. What if I had QKs there? You lose 120$ once every 20 or so odd times too. You are paying 25% of the pot and I guarantee you do not have a 25% edge on that pot going in. In fact the only way you can play that hand against a tag is if you hit a 14+ out draw and that is your BEST scenario. BEST. Not average or often. But Best. You are LUCKY to even get that. And its not even made.

And where would your flop play argument go if I had folded on the turn? Which I usually do.

You have implied odds when you call a fish raise as compared to a fish calling your raise.

[goofyballer]

I keep hearing this "implied implied implied" excuse. But this is a donkey way of thinking! Thats like saying 'If only I pick up a good hand/draw then I can rake in a lot of chips'. Thats true about any semi decent hand so what ends up happening is you call raises with those weak hands and have to fold off 9 out of 10 times. But that is also when FISH are raising. Not when a TAG is raising.

Semi-bluffing is more of an option against TAGs than fish. For example, in the hand we're discussing here, I could push the flop and you insta-fold, because you had AK and I knew you did, and there was no way in hell you had KQs. See? +EV.

Ok so you win a 30$ pot once every 20 or so odd times. What if I had QKs there? You lose 120$ once every 20 or so odd times too. You are paying 25% of the pot and I guarantee you do not have a 25% edge on that pot going in.

O RLY?

In fact the only way you can play that hand against a tag is if you hit a 14+ out draw and that is your BEST scenario. BEST.

Nevermind that 14+ out draws are generally favored.

And where would your flop play argument go if I had folded on the turn? Which I usually do.

I'm not arguing I played optimally - the optimal play was to maximize my folding equity on the flop by coming over the top of your puny raise, which is easily +EV. However, I like you, so I figured I'd peel a card since I had odds and fold UI on the turn. Even if you fold the turn when I hit, I still had odds to call your raise on the flop (3.2:1 odds on a 2.3:1 shot) so that call was +EV even if I don't collect a cent when I hit.

[ugignadl]

Curiously, Goof, would you have smooth called a bigger raise from Mousey on the flop? Would a (perhaps silly) push have made you fold?

Would a big push from you implied Mousey protecting a set? Maybe that is unlikely given the PF play, but...

Great thread.

[miamipuck]

I love when two donkeys argue.

[mousey]

I'm not arguing I played optimally - the optimal play was to maximize my folding equity on the flop by coming over the top of your puny raise, which is easily +EV..

Actually, after thinking about it for quite some time your play wasn't all that bad. Just don't be surprised if I roll out a better flush next time around

Puny? It was a pot size bet and if reraised I would have pushed my hand on the flop. Too few hands beat me. AA, 55, 77, A7, A5, 75. And I can rule out the last 3 on the list; and I am quite confident I can rule out AA.

[mousey]

Out of curiosity does that poker stove program allow for a "random hand"
as specified by a set? Ie: a Random hand to a 70% vpip != a random hand to a 35% vpip.

[goofyballer]

PokerStove lets you pick any range of hands you want. You can't just tell it "the top 70%", but if you want to go manually select the top 70% of hands as someone's range you can.

Puny? It was a pot size bet and if reraised I would have pushed my hand on the flop.

Anyway: $12 on the flop, I bet $5, a pot sized raise is the equivalent of raising the size of the pot after you call $5. So after you put in $5 to call me, there's $22 in the pot; thus, a pot sized re-raise would be making it $27. Making it $15 is quite puny relative to that. If you would seriously push TPTK on that flop after a solid TAG that knows exactly what hand you have pushes, then I seriously look forward to playing with you further. btw, you seem to be confused about the flop - A-8-5, not A-7-5.

Ugignadl: If Mousey raised enough to the point where I wasn't getting odds to see a turn, I can't call anymore; I have to either push or fold. Whether or not I do that in the situation depends on how much variance I feel like weathering, but pushing is the +EV decision, as I'd be getting better than 50/50 on my money if called.

[cavman]

Actually, after thinking about it for quite some time your play wasn't all that bad. Just don't be surprised if I roll out a better flush next time around

Where would doyle be if he folded suited connectors every time someone "might" have a better flush draw? btw, there are very few instances (online) when i make a flush with both my hole cards and don't play for my stack. if you want to come sit in a game with me, i'll pay you off everytime.