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by neverthink » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:44 am
I agree with that last sentence totally. Deeper stacks changes everything, and of course I fold both preflop here, and AK pretty much always, even deepstacked.
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by poormanbilly » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:34 pm
neverthink wrote:No but they will bet their AJ, KJs and even QJ or shove their flush or straight draw enough. You have not shown any strength. They think that you have AK and can be pushed off. They see a big pot and think "free money". What on earth else controls the actions of the BB with nines in this hand. Can't you see the rabid look in his eyes? It is a big pot, they are not going to fold top pair, or any kind of draw.
Also, we did not advocate a push, just to test the waters. 2/3 bet lets the realize they need a great hand to beat you, if they have it, awesome for them, you can make the correct decision now. I accept though that it is pretty marginal and check/folding to a big bet is not so bad, decreases variance at least which is always favourable. A big laydown though.
We're just going to have to disagree on this one. If UTG is seriously raising QJ or KJ 5x and then seeing a flop after I pop him, I'll have his money soon enough anyway. I think it's way too hopeful to look at what you can beat and then play from there instead of looking at what the villain is more likely to have and act accordingly. If the players are going to play as you say, then I don't see how they are folding AJ to ANY bet I make on the flop. After all, they have top pair, right?
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by neverthink » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:24 pm
PoorManBilly wrote:neverthink wrote:No but they will bet their AJ, KJs and even QJ or shove their flush or straight draw enough. You have not shown any strength. They think that you have AK and can be pushed off. They see a big pot and think "free money". What on earth else controls the actions of the BB with nines in this hand. Can't you see the rabid look in his eyes? It is a big pot, they are not going to fold top pair, or any kind of draw.
Also, we did not advocate a push, just to test the waters. 2/3 bet lets the realize they need a great hand to beat you, if they have it, awesome for them, you can make the correct decision now. I accept though that it is pretty marginal and check/folding to a big bet is not so bad, decreases variance at least which is always favourable. A big laydown though.
We're just going to have to disagree on this one. If UTG is seriously raising QJ or KJ 5x and then seeing a flop after I pop him, I'll have his money soon enough anyway. I think it's way too hopeful to look at what you can beat and then play from there instead of looking at what the villain is more likely to have and act accordingly. If the players are going to play as you say, then I don't see how they are folding AJ to ANY bet I make on the flop. After all, they have top pair, right?
I'm not looking at what I can beat and going from there, I am looking at his whole probable range and feel that I beat enough of it here to ask the question at least.
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by poormanbilly » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:51 pm
neverthink wrote:PoorManBilly wrote:neverthink wrote:No but they will bet their AJ, KJs and even QJ or shove their flush or straight draw enough. You have not shown any strength. They think that you have AK and can be pushed off. They see a big pot and think "free money". What on earth else controls the actions of the BB with nines in this hand. Can't you see the rabid look in his eyes? It is a big pot, they are not going to fold top pair, or any kind of draw.
Also, we did not advocate a push, just to test the waters. 2/3 bet lets the realize they need a great hand to beat you, if they have it, awesome for them, you can make the correct decision now. I accept though that it is pretty marginal and check/folding to a big bet is not so bad, decreases variance at least which is always favourable. A big laydown though.
We're just going to have to disagree on this one. If UTG is seriously raising QJ or KJ 5x and then seeing a flop after I pop him, I'll have his money soon enough anyway. I think it's way too hopeful to look at what you can beat and then play from there instead of looking at what the villain is more likely to have and act accordingly. If the players are going to play as you say, then I don't see how they are folding AJ to ANY bet I make on the flop. After all, they have top pair, right?
I'm not looking at what I can beat and going from there, I am looking at his whole probable range and feel that I beat enough of it here to ask the question at least.
Like I said, we're just going to have to disagree. I think his range is pretty small and you think it's pretty large. If we each thought the opposite, we might play the hand differently.
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by scottie_g » Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:25 am
Bottom line, check/fold is non-standard play, I think we can agree on that. But given the situation, players, stack sizes, etc... PMB made what he thought was the correct decision at the time. It turned out to be the right one.
IMO, as long as you have legitimate reasons for doing what you were doing, this play is fine.
Of course I sometimes make non-standard plays myself... it keeps it interesting and keeps players guessing. Some plays can also depend on past situations or some other hand that happened at the table.
IMO, as long as you have legitimate reasons for doing what you were doing, this play is fine.
Of course I sometimes make non-standard plays myself... it keeps it interesting and keeps players guessing. Some plays can also depend on past situations or some other hand that happened at the table.
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by neverthink » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:57 pm
Yeah, I multitable a lot lately and make more standard plays on the whole. It's definitely sound logic that Bill bases his decision on, and I respect that. I would always say go with your first instinct, and at the time of a hand they can seem odd. Very good choice though in this case, really.
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