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Splitting shorts to win the blinds?
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Splitting shorts to win the blinds?
by sfustsh » Thu Mar 08, 2007 9:10 pm
You are dealt 22A67 in the big blind. The table folds to the small blind, who completes. The small blind draws three. Do you:
Draw three to deuces.
Trash deuces and draw four to aces.
I'm not sure what the answer is, but I want to know what other players are doing in this situation. It seems like the natural tendency of all players is to draw three to deuces in an attempt to win the blinds by helping or forfeit the hand. I don't think this is correct. Your opponent will help the same percent of the time (unless he has AKxxx, but even then he can still beat you), so this should be a breakeven play. I think the better play is to draw four cards to aces. If you make a pair of aces and your opponent doesn't help (2.5 to 1 against) you win. You can also make a better pair that might win as well.
I think the higher your pair, the more apt you should be to draw three, and likewise the lower your pair, the more apt you should be to draw 4. This is because the higher the pair, the better the chance to have the best hand at showdown if you both don't improve.
Also, what if the A is a K? Do you draw to the king, take 5, or draw 3 to the pair?
Ideas?
Draw three to deuces.
Trash deuces and draw four to aces.
I'm not sure what the answer is, but I want to know what other players are doing in this situation. It seems like the natural tendency of all players is to draw three to deuces in an attempt to win the blinds by helping or forfeit the hand. I don't think this is correct. Your opponent will help the same percent of the time (unless he has AKxxx, but even then he can still beat you), so this should be a breakeven play. I think the better play is to draw four cards to aces. If you make a pair of aces and your opponent doesn't help (2.5 to 1 against) you win. You can also make a better pair that might win as well.
I think the higher your pair, the more apt you should be to draw three, and likewise the lower your pair, the more apt you should be to draw 4. This is because the higher the pair, the better the chance to have the best hand at showdown if you both don't improve.
Also, what if the A is a K? Do you draw to the king, take 5, or draw 3 to the pair?
Ideas?
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sfustsh - Whale Hunter
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by biggle10 » Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:28 pm
The problem I have with drawing 4 is that its very difficult to call a bet if SB bets which they usually do when you draw 4. If they don't improve, its unlikely they call a bet since your hand is very easy to read.
With 22, its easier to earn a bet after the draw IMO if you improve.
With 22, its easier to earn a bet after the draw IMO if you improve.
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by caffiend » Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:45 am
I think Biggle's on the right track. You should draw whatever will prevent the small blind from betting. He's also got a short, so even improving is dangerous. By number of cards drawn:
Drawing one is the best way to get to a free showdown against a weak player. It's a disaster in the making in this scenario though, because you can't win unimproved.
Drawing two isn't deceptive at all. Nobody with half a brain is going to give you trips when you didn't raise. It isn't all bad, however, because they'll correctly give assume you kept a kicker. That will get you the occasional free showdown, so the higher your pair the more apt you should be to keep the ace. Again, here it's ugly because you can't win unimproved.
Drawing three gives you the best chance to improve, because you're really looking for a deuce on the draw. It also gives you the most flexibility after the draw, because you have position and can represent a decent hand. This works best when you have a clear idea what your opponent will do after the draw.
Drawing four or five is basically a nightmare. Virtually everyone will bet into you, forcing a surrender. That's not even taking in account the times when you catch a big pair and look up his two small pair.
So basically, I'd draw three about 90% of the time and keep a kicker about 10% of the time. That's just me though. (I'd probably draw one about 1% of the time, when I thought I'd get away with something)
Drawing one is the best way to get to a free showdown against a weak player. It's a disaster in the making in this scenario though, because you can't win unimproved.
Drawing two isn't deceptive at all. Nobody with half a brain is going to give you trips when you didn't raise. It isn't all bad, however, because they'll correctly give assume you kept a kicker. That will get you the occasional free showdown, so the higher your pair the more apt you should be to keep the ace. Again, here it's ugly because you can't win unimproved.
Drawing three gives you the best chance to improve, because you're really looking for a deuce on the draw. It also gives you the most flexibility after the draw, because you have position and can represent a decent hand. This works best when you have a clear idea what your opponent will do after the draw.
Drawing four or five is basically a nightmare. Virtually everyone will bet into you, forcing a surrender. That's not even taking in account the times when you catch a big pair and look up his two small pair.
So basically, I'd draw three about 90% of the time and keep a kicker about 10% of the time. That's just me though. (I'd probably draw one about 1% of the time, when I thought I'd get away with something)
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caffiend - Whale Hunter
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by sfustsh » Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:22 am
The more I think about this the more I think it depends on the opponent.
Against suspicious players, drawing 1 is suicide. Against nitty players, drawing 1 might be the best play.
Against loose players, draw three for trips. Against tight players, draw 4 to an ace, hoping to get a check from an unimproved hand. Or something like this.
I'm not really convinced that drawing three is always the mathematically correct play, but I do see your points about doing it though.
Perhaps it's the limit but I think you give most players too much credit for reading a 4 card draw. Many players will check and call, just wondering what you've got. Today I got paid off when I drew five to a flush.
Maybe raising is the right play here...
Anyway, always trying to keep our minds open.
Against suspicious players, drawing 1 is suicide. Against nitty players, drawing 1 might be the best play.
Against loose players, draw three for trips. Against tight players, draw 4 to an ace, hoping to get a check from an unimproved hand. Or something like this.
I'm not really convinced that drawing three is always the mathematically correct play, but I do see your points about doing it though.
Perhaps it's the limit but I think you give most players too much credit for reading a 4 card draw. Many players will check and call, just wondering what you've got. Today I got paid off when I drew five to a flush.
Maybe raising is the right play here...
Anyway, always trying to keep our minds open.
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sfustsh - Whale Hunter
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by caffiend » Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:35 am
sfustsh wrote:Perhaps it's the limit but I think you give most players too much credit for reading a 4 card draw. Many players will check and call, just wondering what you've got. Today I got paid off when I drew five to a flush.
Well, some people are weird. I don't remember all of the details, but this is essentially what happened. I checked in the big blind after a couple limpers, drew five, and ended up with aces. I bet, the opener folds, and some guy by the button calls me with eights or something stupid.
Granted, that was the reason I bet. Idiot #1 was on the come, and idiot #2 was an ATM. It defies common sense though. I do some odd things at time, but drawing five and betting into multiple people? Give me a little credit for something.
Back to your example, I wouldn't draw one to deuces against nits. The free showdown is only a benefit if you have a chance of winning it. Something like sevens or eights may hold up, but deuces never will.
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