Tight Poker

[cavman]

There hasn't been much posted here recently, so I figured I'd put something up. I'm not really interested in comments on early streets, but you can make them if you want. The only real info I have on the villain is that he's a multi-tabler, and pretty tight, but has a fairly high aggression factor. So, should I raise the river or not? If so, how much, and do we call push?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $391.50
SB: $334
BB: $398

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is Button with
Hero raises to $14, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($30, 2 players)
BB bets $24, Hero calls.

River: ($78, 2 players)
BB bets $62, Hero...

[sfustsh]

Well, what do you think he has?

Fives or deuces full? Could even be a TJ or something. Can't really see him checking a queen or QT on the flop, but you don't beat QT anyway.

I'm not even sure you're ahead here.

EDIT: Given how the hand has played out, you show a lot of weakness though. I prefer to call however.

[mirage]

I personally think you are WA/WB. Just what are you going to extract from, T7? AQ? I suppose an idiot with AQ might spite call you but I wouldn't expect AQ to lead that river so hard.

[neverthink]

The difference between calling or raising is pretty game dynamic. By not betting the flop he will assume you missed, flopped pretty big, or marginally as is the case. So with a couple of big bets he can get you to lay down some/most of the time, and he can easily fold to a raise when you are strong. That would lead me to just calling, as a bluff never calls your raise, he probably wouldn't bet a Q like that, and you'll only get raised or called if you are beaten about 80 percent of the time I'd say. The few times you win will be when you outkick villain, which is not often.

I'd play it the same on all streets, though sometimes I may minraise the turn in position if I think I could have the best hand but couldn't call a stiff river bet. If you don't river that ten, do you fold to that bet?

[cavman]

thanks for the responses. i did call for the reasons that were stated in the thread. Basically even though i have the best hand a large % of the time, i'm rarely going to get called and win. turns out villain had QJ, but i'm almost sure he would've laid down to a raise.

sfu: i have no idea what he has- that's the problem with playing a hand like this. As a solid reg (him), i think there's a good chance he senses weakness and is firing with air on the turn, but he could easily have a hand too. i never really considered folding after i hit the third ten.

Mirage: i agree there isn't much i can extract from. i think he might've made that bet on the river so he could fold to a raise.

neverthink: i would most likely fold the river to a bet unimproved the first time. this hand was the first time i'd checked behind after a pre-flop raise and he had fired out. since it was the first time, i'd likely fold to the second barrel, but i'd be ready to call in the future if the hand played out similarly.