Tight Poker

[cavman]

I don't have too much good info on villain in this hand. I've seen him make a few small bluffs, but nothing this big. I've also seen him make a few small mistakes, but nothing really dumb. He isn't way too loose, but he's not a nit. I guess he's pretty average in most respects. anyways, here's the hand. Can i even consider making this call on the river?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $12, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: ($38, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $38, Hero calls, CO folds.

Turn: ($114, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($114, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $161.4, Hero... really wants to call

[easy_as_pie]

either getting owned or air........i would probably time out most of the time

i like a call

[neverthink]

Well, I prefer to hit the flop a bit harder than that with 89s. Personally, your flop float is a little optimistic, you have to give them credit sometimes. Imo, if he makes a pot sized bet at the river, it's a questionable lookup but ok. All in, I think he probably has a monster he checked to you on the turn. Depends a little on how he thinks you percieve him. If he bets every flop he raised pre, then he more often than not has a monster here, if he doesn't, there is still a very good chance that he has significantly more than air. He can bluff this without risking his entire stack. He may have had legitimate reason to check the turn if he held Queens, and so you are calling into second trips on the river. Flop fold, river easier one. If he has air, then he has manipulated you perfectly, gg.

He could have backed into the JTstraight as well. I just think that he could bluff this with an 80 dollar bet and save himself half that if called, plus he is gonna have to be succesful 4/5 times or something to break even, so it's a ballsy come stupid bluff. Would villain value bet trips on a board with a straight on it? If no chances are increased it's a bluff. I still fold though, bad price for bluff catching.

[cavman]

The action is a little confusing, but villain in this hand was not the preflop raiser. He flat called on the button, and the preflop raiser check-folded on the flop.

[sfustsh]

I still fold though, bad price for bluff catching.

Donkeys bluff a lot, but not every single time. Granted, his story doesn't make sense. He might have a busted flush draw or a nailed straight draw. It's just too hard for me to make this call, in fact I fold the flop with middle pair on a flush board a lot of the time.

It's especially hard because his holdings are so obscure. I don't like to call with middle pair against this kind of opponent.

Trips probably doesn't bet the pot on the flop but it might. 99s could call a preflop raise, and KK definitely would but will likely rereaise. 55 could make the call too I suppose, especially from the button. Betting the pot is a little more than is necessary to force out flush draws, and it could scare away middle pairs. On the turn there's no compelling reason for him to not bet again. The 3 is a huge blank and he would still have the best hand, no reason to give a free card here, there's no card that could really help him, and he'd had to shut down if a spade hit. If this is trips it's very poorly played.

Even maniacs don't bet the pot with a GSSD on the flop, I don't think this is likely.

A flush draw is more likely, and could bet on the flop though it's really loose aggressive. From then on, however, it is a standard (donkey) play to bet the river with a busted draw. Unfortunately for him, he put so much money in there already that his all in is barely 1.5x the pot.

I think there's a good chance villain has KQ here. Pot sized bet is necessary (if a 'little' overkill) on the flop and the check really just means that your villain is a little confused about how to play it. The Queen on the river gives him a lock and he throws it all in there.

For me, I would consider, I beat flush draws, lower pairs, air. However, I'm losing to trips, two pair, any K or Q and that bullshit straight draw. Need a strong read to call here, in a vacuum I fold.

Calling here isn't unheard of though. I don't do it with such modest holdings though. You are not wrong to consider calling, I just don't think it's worth the huge price. Besides, if he gets away with it he's gonna do it all night and you'll have other chances to catch him with his pants down.

[nlman]

I'd fold this on the flop.

[easy_as_pie]

looks like a draw

[ugignadl]

looks a bit like TT. Of the big hands, I think 55 is most likely.

I'd fold the river.

[cavman]

I wasn't actually the hero or villain in this hand (I was UTG), but i saw this hand and wanted to see what you all said about this call. Villain in this hand had 87o and Hero's hand is good.

I'm trying to improve at making big calls like this on the river, but I've typically been wrong when I try and snap off what looks like a bluff lately. I know villain shouldn't check a legitimate hand on the turn like he did, and the river looks like a bluff, but I still wouldn't even consider calling this.

[easy_as_pie]

BOOM

[ugignadl]

Nice to know. There are some crazy people out there.

[nlman]

Villain in this hand had 87o

LOL! This reminds me of the time someone was trying to bluff me off my quads with 9Jo His bets and reraises looked scary, but my read indicated that I have a winning hand, so I called his all in on the river.