Tight Poker

by **bobcorn** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:15 pm

PokerStars Game #3175669750: Tournament #15714565, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2005/11/27 - 17:11:22 (ET)
Table '15714565 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: JayNova (4790 in chips)
Seat 4: thrumytree (3720 in chips)
Seat 5: bobcorn (1410 in chips)
Seat 8: non mexico (2465 in chips)
Seat 9: DMac1957 (1115 in chips)
thrumytree: posts small blind 75
bobcorn: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bobcorn [Kc Js]
non mexico: folds
DMac1957: folds
JayNova: calls 150
thrumytree: calls 75
bobcorn: ???

JayNova seems fairly tight. He has a VP$IP of 30% over 20 hands and this is the second time he has limped on the button. Thrumytree is very tight and i dont think he will call a push. The only thing i'm worried about is JayNova calling with an Ace or low pp. Should i push or check and see a flop?

PokerStars Game #3175798325: Tournament #15714565, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2005/11/27 - 17:25:10 (ET)
Table '15714565 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: JayNova (2500 in chips)
Seat 4: thrumytree (3758 in chips)
Seat 5: bobcorn (2035 in chips)
Seat 8: non mexico (3780 in chips)
Seat 9: DMac1957 (1427 in chips)
JayNova: posts the ante 25
thrumytree: posts the ante 25
bobcorn: posts the ante 25
non mexico: posts the ante 25
DMac1957: posts the ante 25
thrumytree: posts small blind 200
bobcorn: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bobcorn [8c Kd]
non mexico: calls 400
DMac1957: folds
JayNova: folds
thrumytree: folds
bobcorn: ???

non mexico was very loose early on but has tightened up. He has raised my blind the last 2 times he was utg. I'm not sure if he would limp w/ a monster. Should i push here?

by **happycamper374** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:22 pm

The first one I would check. the second I would be cautious of. Whats the buy in? You're gonna have to ask the experts on that one. I would maybe check but it could go either way in my head.

by **mervhage** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:23 pm

I believe I'd check both hands. On hand one, you have two people in front of you, I don't want to push KJ, though I'd push with AK, b/c KJ isn't strong enough here.

Second hand, I can't stand the 8 and would only consider pushing if the SB completes to me and he completes w/ anything, otherwise, save the chips for a better spot.

by **bobcorn** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:33 pm

These were both from a $15 turbo. On the second hand, if you had KJ or KQ would you push? non mexico was such a weak player i wasnt sure if his limp meant strength or weakness.

by **happycamper374** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:47 pm

well, if he's limping a pp you're behind, if he has an ace you're behind. If you push you're counting on FE giving you a +EV edge, and if he's a bad player, theres a good chance he'll call negating your imaginary FE (fold equity). so I believe a check is in order.

by **happycamper374** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:55 pm

EDIT: ok, there are 5 people left, not 4. So my response only kind of makes sense...but I'll leave it anyway.

well, if he's limping a pp you're behind, if he has an ace you're behind. K9+ you're behind. something in between there you're an extremely mild favorite, and 2 cards below you you're only a 3 to 2 fav or worse. If you push you're counting on FE giving you a +EV edge, and if he's a bad player, theres a good chance he'll call negating your imaginary FE (fold equity). so I believe a check is in order.

Also, when you're on the bubble you dont want to take coin flips. The math works out in such a way that coinflips are bad on the bubble. Here:

If I take a coinflip, I have a 50% chance of busting and a 50% chance of being the big stack with three left.

So I have 50% chance of $0
and a 50% chance getting into the final 3 with about 4000 to 2000 to 2000

this should mean 1st 50% of the time I survive- $25 equity (10+1)
2nd 25% of the time - $7.5 equity (10+1)
3rd 25% of the time - $5 equity (10+1)

so all together this means .5(0)+.25(50)+.125(30)+.125(20)
or, $18.75 equity

BUT...

if I avoid confrontation when I know it's gonna mean a showdown I have the same equity (slightly less if I'm in the blind) as before. This is

1st 25% of the time - $12.5 equity
2nd 25% of the time - $7.5 equity
3rd 25% of the time - $5 equity
4th 25% of the time - $0

so all together this means .25(0)+.25(50)+.25(30)+.25(20)
or, $25 equity

Aleomagus, two plus two forums

That assumes everyone is of equal skill level.
The kicker is that you can never really know you're in a coin flip situation, and I think every STTer would call a bubble push with AK. (Given no special stacks cicumstances or anything like that)

Thoughts anybody else? or am I way off?

by **easy_as_pie** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:20 pm

i push

you have folding equity and a chance of winning

i'd push without a read but since you are reading them for tight, the better, makes it easier to push
think....what hands would you be limping in late position
if he is limping in with monster...so be it
i am taking my chances + folding equity

by **bobcorn** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:35 pm

Thanks for the great comments! I ended up checking both hands and taking them down postflop.

Tight Poker

pushing from the big blind

pushing from the big blind

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