Pot odds in a tournament....

[biggle10]

I know this was discussed on old boards but a friend and I were discussing it. Here's the hand that brought it up. My friend is messymo in this hand, he is holding 98.


PokerStars Game #3546992842: Tournament #17599175, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/01/06 - 00:27:50 (ET)
Table '17599175 17' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Sangammon (990 in chips)
Seat 2: georgeman88 (1120 in chips)
Seat 3: jinkars (1670 in chips)
Seat 4: Ricko101 (2570 in chips)
Seat 5: Boods31 (1575 in chips)
Seat 6: RoRo03 (3050 in chips)
Seat 7: Jamroom (1550 in chips)
Seat 8: C-the-Jakal (850 in chips)
Seat 9: messymo (2165 in chips)
georgeman88: posts small blind 15
jinkars: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Ricko101: folds
Boods31: folds
RoRo03: folds
Jamroom: folds
C-the-Jakal: calls 30
messymo: calls 30
Sangammon: calls 30
georgeman88: calls 15
jinkars: checks
*** FLOP *** [6h 9c 8c]
georgeman88: bets 120
jinkars: calls 120
C-the-Jakal: calls 120
messymo: calls 120
Sangammon: raises 840 to 960 and is all-in
georgeman88: folds
jinkars: calls 840
C-the-Jakal: calls 700 and is all-in
messymo: ???


No peeking until you reply.
folds
*** TURN *** [6h 9c 8c] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [6h 9c 8c Ad] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jinkars: shows [8d 6s] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
Sangammon: shows [5c 4c] (a pair of Nines)
jinkars collected 280 from side pot
C-the-Jakal: shows [Ah 7s] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
C-the-Jakal collected 2850 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3130 Main pot 2850. Side pot 280. | Rake 0
Board [6h 9c 8c Ad 9d]
Seat 1: Sangammon (button) showed [5c 4c] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 2: georgeman88 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: jinkars (big blind) showed [8d 6s] and won (280) with two pair, Nines and Eights
Seat 4: Ricko101 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Boods31 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: RoRo03 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Jamroom folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: C-the-Jakal showed [Ah 7s] and won (2850) with two pair, Aces and Nines
Seat 9: messymo folded on the Flop

[terminal]

I think I would have to fold. It's still pretty early so I don't think you have enough information on the players to make a reasonable assessment of their play. One or both may be on a draw, but it might be a set or a made straight. I think I wait. Of coarse, I have been getting my ass kicked in tourneys lately, so I would probably be making the wrong decision.


[edit] I didn't notice that there were three in the hand I thought it was just the two short stacks. Doesn't change my opinion to fold, in fact, for me it would just make my choice to fold easier.[edit]

[biggle10]

Well, let's say everyone shows their cards. Do you call?

[tdostie@nc]

First let me say that there are two problems with this hand before your friend decided whether or not to call the 2 all-ins and the caller, but we will get to those in a second.

First off you have to figure that you only have two options. One to fold and the second to push all-in and force the caller to push the rest of his stack in. The reason I say this is because if you just call he is more than likely going to go all-in on the turn or the river and at that point you will be definitely be getting pot odds to call. Let's assume that if you push that he will call.

jinkars (assuming he calls your all-in) = 1670
Sangammon = 990
C-the-Jakal = 850
messymo (already in the pot) = 150
total = 3660

One good thing is you have everyone covered so you won't be eliminated if you call. It costs you 1520 to push jinkars all-in which gives you pot odds of 2.33:1. Let me just say those are odds I am less than thrilled about. You need to be roughly a 30% favorite to win when the flop comes in order to just break even.

Now the question is without knowing what the other three callers are holding what % favorite to win the hand do you think you are. I'd say anywhere between at the very most 50% and at the very least 10% which gives you a nice average of 30% (exactly the odds you need to call to roughly break even). Since you are break even at this point it's an easy fold considering your chip stack and it being early in the tournament.

On to the mistakes. 1. Playing shit like 8,9 (even if it's suited throw it away this early in a tournament). 2. If your playing hands like 8,9 you need to play them aggressively when you hit with them, and if not you shouldn't be playing them in the first place (see #1). Your real option I believe is not with the all-in call, but your decision to just call the 120 bet. It's at this point where you need to decide how you are going to play this hand. You have a very good hand, but also a very scary flop with the straight and flush possibilities. My thought would be to push all-in at this point and put the decision on your opponents (4 is just way too many you have to try and narrow the field). I would much rather be the aggressor in this case. Anyways that's my two cents. I'm interested on what others would have to say. Good scenario Biggle

[terminal]

Well, let's say everyone shows their cards. Do you call?

Interesting question.

I still think I fold, there are to many cards that can beat me. 15 on the turn, and I am only about 35% to win. The 5c4c hand is actually the favorite to win at this point.
9 clubs
3 Ts
3 5s

Your only a little better than 50% on the turn.
There are 5 more outs at the river.

2 As
3 7s

Of coarse you can't really consider this since you won't know, but almost any card that falls on the turn is going to add more outs. I think only the J, Q, and K won't add any additional outs.

[kbar13]

I also fold given the action and the callers. 3 callers of an all-in is too many for me to call without a stronger hand.

I also agree with TD on his points of how the hand was played. I don't mind playing 89 from the cutoff, suited or not. However, I think this is a must raise flop. You hit top two pair but there are a ton of outs to beat your hand. I raise it up to about 500. I dont like moving in because a set is almost for sure going to call you, whereas a str8 and flush draw would be tough. So my play is raise it to 500 on the flop, but fold given the way it was played.

[jacedk]

I also fold given the action and the callers. 3 callers of an all-in is too many for me to call without a stronger hand.

I also agree with TD on his points of how the hand was played. I don't mind playing 89 from the cutoff, suited or not. However, I think this is a must raise flop.

Ditto!

Tournament life is much more important than the odds at this point, which aren't even that great.

[shun]

My first thought was he should probably be the raiser on that flop, not the guy behind him. After the action (those calls of the pot-sized bet on the flop are very supicious) I might be willing to get away from it fearing a made straight.

This isn't a typical pot odds situation though, he has a made hand only a full house draw which is very weak and only 4 outs. Still though, 4 outs on the flop is 5:1 to hit, and he's getting 3.7:1 immediately on the call of 840, so if there's a chance he's ahead, he probably should call if there's enough chance that he'll make up that gap in equity being ahead. And it is very possible he's "ahead" by a slight margin, one or both could have flush draws and another guy could have a 7.

Code: Select all

         
                equity (%)     win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   35.3659 %     35.37%    00.00%      { 9s8s }
Hand  2:   12.5000 %     12.20%    00.30%      { Ad7d }
Hand  3:   36.2805 %     35.98%    00.30%      { Ac3c }
Hand  4:   15.8537 %     15.85%    00.00%      { JsTs }

The math I'm doing right now looks like you should call. If you're actually up against a straight (change Ad7d to Td7d, you've got 19% equity, which is basically very close to 4:1 not 5:1.

Also, If I'm calling, I'm going all-in because I would hate for the only guy who isn't all-in to miss his draw when I hit my boat and not get his chips.

Here's the math I'm doing, correctly me if this seems totally wrong:

.35 * 3100 = 1085 (chip EV of being ahead)

(1/5.2) * 3100 = 596 (chip EV being behind)

(1/4.7) * 3100 = 659 (even money chip EV)

It sounds like from this that if you think there's even a 5% chance of being in the ahead scenario, that you are getting even money on the call. The better the chance of being ahead, the more you should call.

Hmm...

[shun]

Well, let's say everyone shows their cards. Do you call?

Easily.

[shun]

TDostie : I'm pretty sure your pot odds math is wrong. I don't think it's fair to go from 3.7:1 pot odds of calling to a 2.33:1 pot odds of going all-in. Really, we should consider each side pot seperately and if we consider setting jinkars all-in we should consider it an even money side pot against jinkars.

[davenklee]

Before seeing the cards: fold. Too early to be that aggressive with so many people jumping in the pot for all-in.

After seeing the cards: raise all-in 50% and fold 50% depending on previous actions. The only scary hand is the club flush and even if he catches you have 4 outs to the full house. I still think it's too early to be that aggressive.