How much do you pay for a Flush Draw

[ixanadu]

This started out to be a blind steal. Albeit I'm in too early a position to do so, all the players behind me exept RSavits have been playing pretty tight. R is a super agressive player, and if he had a hand would come way over the top and I'd have to forfeit $120.

First question is about the $60 call on the diamond draw. $240 in the pot give me a 4-1 money odds, against what I figure to be a 5.5-1 drawing odds. Because of previous play I put R on Ax, low pair, Str8 Draw, or the same diamond draw. If I hit the implied odds are pretty huge because of his betting pattern (see below). These draws almost never work out for me and I would have probably folded a 1/2 pot bet. Help me out here, how much "should" a player pay under these circumstances to see the next card.

Second Question, was the 2.5x raise on the river too much? I felt I had the nuts and wanted to maximize the pot. Didn't want to raise too low or too high.

#Game No : 107050669
***** Pacific Hand History for Game 107050669 *****
$15/$30 Blinds No Limit Hold'em - *** 01 12 21:22:01 2006
Tournament #7733516 $30 + $3 - Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: trhls04 ( $915 )
Seat 3: MeMe ( $1020 )
Seat 5: peterho ( $955 )
Seat 8: RSavitz ( $2110 )
RSavitz posts small blind [$15].
trhls04 posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MeMe [ Ad 10d ]
MeMe raises [$120].
peterho folds.
RSavitz calls [$105].
trhls04 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 7d, 8d ]
RSavitz bets [$60].
MeMe calls [$60].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
RSavitz bets [$60].
MeMe calls [$60].
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
RSavitz bets [$60].
MeMe raises [$210].
RSavitz raises [$450].
MeMe raises [$570].
RSavitz calls [$270].
** Summary **
MeMe shows [ Ad 10d ].
RSavitz mucks.
MeMe collected [$2070].

PS: This tourny broke a 7 game OTM streak. Finished first going HU a 3.5-1 chip underdog. Confidence not totally resored, but damn it feels good to be back in the money.

Bob

[bobcorn]

This is a classic spot for a semi-bluff. His bet on the flop is really weak. You have the nut flush draw, 2 overcards, and a gutshot straight draw. Because of this I would raise his flop bet to 360. This should give you a free card or make him fold, which are both good outcomes.

[mervhage]

This is a classic spot for a semi-bluff. His bet on the flop is really weak. You have the nut flush draw, 2 overcards, and a gutshot straight draw. Because of this I would raise his flop bet to 360. This should give you a free card or make him fold, which are both good outcomes.

I probably take this line as well. Gives you 2 ways to win the pot.

Do you count hitting the A and T as well? Even without the overcard draw, this is as stated a great place for a semi bluff, definite +EV.

[zardnok]

Dittos on coming over the top on the flop for a healthy bet. You will win this more often than not right here.

[sean_connery]

I like the smooth call on the flop - Your opponent very well could be on a draw as well, and if you hit your Flush/straight draw, there's a good chance your opponent hit his draw as well and will double you up. Even if opponent doesn't hit draw, good chance he won't respect your flop raise, since you raised Pre-flop and the flop is rags, plus the villian is the big stack..... Smooth call gives you a chance to double up without risking much of your stack. Too early for a semi-bluff IMO.

[mervhage]

Smooth call gives you a chance to double up without risking much of your stack. Too early for a semi-bluff IMO.

I beg to differ. The object of a semi-bluff is to increase your chances of winning the hand. The times that you miss everything could be prevented by raising the flop and having the villain dump it then coupled with the times that he calls and you hit your draw and get paid off by juicing the pot, makes this +EV.

By the way, you stated it was too early, I just noticed there were 4 people left and the blinds were 15/30. Was this a SH sng?

[sean_connery]

Hmmmm,

Well if '+EV' means the expected value of your chips, then I don't dispute that the semi-bluff is probably '+EV'

But if '+EV' means the expected value of $$ (Buy-in and/or payout), I am not so sure the semi-bluff is +EV.......... If you push on the flop (note: the amount of the semi-bluff has been unspecified so far) and get called you have about a 45% chance (say you have ~15 outs) of losing your Buy-in...... If you push and win, your chances of 1st/2nd/3rd certainly have increased, but its still anyones game (BB will now have ~1000 chips)..... If opp folds you have ~1300 chips...

Calling on the flop means you have a 0% chance of losing your buy-in, while still having a decent shot at doubling up..... If the turn is a blank, then you are at risk of folding to any significant aggression which puts you at ~850 in chips - still in it certainly with the blinds at 15/30, but not as good as 1300 obviously....

I find SNG's kind of tough to quantify in terms of EV($), since chips aren't synonomous with $$........ How do others go about determining this? (or do they....)

Also, the payout structure is probably relevant in this discussion since as you noted this looks to be a SH SNG, and I have no idea what the payout structure is.......

[bobcorn]

If his opponent has top pair (w/o an Ace or 9 kicker) he has 18 outs(3 Aces, 3 10's, 4 9's and 8 diamonds) with 2 cards to come. Given that he's a favorite, wouldn't he want to raise with his hand? Flat-calling here is very passive IMO.

[kbar13]

Calling on the flop means you have a 0% chance of losing your buy-in, while still having a decent shot at doubling up..... If the turn is a blank, then you are at risk of folding to any significant aggression which puts you at ~850 in chips - still in it certainly with the blinds at 15/30, but not as good as 1300 obviously....

I also like a flop raise. A bet of 60 into a raiser on a rag flop smells of stealing the pot. A raise puts the opponent to a decision which is something I like to do if I can and think, like in this case, would be profitable. The only situation on this hand is if the opponent has a set or two pair. Just calling really puts you in a tough situation if say you hit an ace and he bets big. By raising the flop, it gives you more information on your opponents hand and can better assess the situation on the turn if you do hit an A.

Also, the payout structure is probably relevant in this discussion since as you noted this looks to be a SH SNG, and I have no idea what the payout structure is.......

I disagree with this statement. Seeing as how your opponenet is the chip leader, he is not going to be worried about not finishing in the money. I always play to win, so that should not be a factor for you either. However, if your opponent had less chips than you, and top three do pay, I would probably move in on the flop and make him call for all his chips on the bubble.

[sean_connery]

Quote from Bob:

If his opponent has top pair (w/o an Ace or 9 kicker) he has 18 outs(3 Aces, 3 10's, 4 9's and 8 diamonds) with 2 cards to come.

Since it was disputed whether the overcards were live, I split the difference and said one was live (15 outs). Given that I believe you are a 55% favorite to hit your draw by the river. (I should have specified this more clearly...)

Quote #2 from Bob:

Given that he's a favorite, wouldn't he want to raise with his hand?

This is not necessarily true. It is always true for ring games, but not SNG's. For example, let's say the 3 opponents were all over Aggressive, and that top 3 pays out. Its just a matter of time before one of these 3 busts out. In this case, why risk not being in the $ by pushing a hand with a slight advantage when you are in no danger of being eaten up by the blinds? You can just sit back, take no risk and pretty much be assured that you will be ITM........... This is an important concept for SNG's...... Now whether or not it applies in this particular case is not so clear cut.....

Also, kbar: I didn't mean the payout structure was relevant with respect to what the BB does (although it may be). All I meant was in SH SNG's do top 3 pay out? I really have no idea. If its top2 or top1 it may have an effect on how you play this.......

[LadyWrestler]

Hi.

The key points here, imho, are the 30 blinds and 4 people remaining. Based on those, I think the way you played the hand was excellent

Congratulations on breaking the losing streak! Have a great day!