Risky bubble play?
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19 posts • Page 2 of 2 • 1, 2
by caffiend » Wed May 23, 2007 5:04 pm
I could point out that it's 2+2, and you made the players a bit tighter in that poll.
I think the real problem is that it's just such an oddball situtation. The poll there gives the blinds a 9-10% VP$IP. I don't think that's terribly realistic four handed. It's unknown what the previous levels were like, so we have no idea why they're so tight. It's also unclear when they'll loosen up. I suspect the small blind is close though.
Obviously the moron brigade is going to go with "instapush" if you expect your steal to work 81% of the time! A more conservative player might suggest that:
1. You'll only be called by better hands.
2. You can expect a call ~20% of the time.
T. It's likely you'll get your money in bad with five orbits.
They might also suggest that 81% of the pot is T$486, which is a frightfully small amount to risk a T$3,900 bet. Gaing one blind against the field doesn't materially change your position. You will still be roughly even with everyone except the small blind, who can only play ~8 more hands in either case.
Once again though, the problem is that stats are clearly misleading. For example, look at the two rather boneheaded conclusions you can draw. First of all, the guy to your right should have minraised under the gun with any two cards. Clearly you'll only play when he's beat so he's protected from elimination. Since the blinds are expected to fold, he's got a huge expectation. But who the hell is going to do that?
Also, you should be all-in on slightly more than 50% of your hands! Obviously this is an instapush, as are any two cards in the small blind. Since the small blind's VP$IP suggests he won't make a voluntary bet before being eliminated, you should always play when he's the big blind to prevent him from playing on a forced bet!
As I said though, they aren't complete morons. I really dislike the suggestion that you should push about five times before the bubble ends, even if it's "correct" to do so.
I think the real problem is that it's just such an oddball situtation. The poll there gives the blinds a 9-10% VP$IP. I don't think that's terribly realistic four handed. It's unknown what the previous levels were like, so we have no idea why they're so tight. It's also unclear when they'll loosen up. I suspect the small blind is close though.
Obviously the moron brigade is going to go with "instapush" if you expect your steal to work 81% of the time! A more conservative player might suggest that:
1. You'll only be called by better hands.
2. You can expect a call ~20% of the time.
T. It's likely you'll get your money in bad with five orbits.
They might also suggest that 81% of the pot is T$486, which is a frightfully small amount to risk a T$3,900 bet. Gaing one blind against the field doesn't materially change your position. You will still be roughly even with everyone except the small blind, who can only play ~8 more hands in either case.
Once again though, the problem is that stats are clearly misleading. For example, look at the two rather boneheaded conclusions you can draw. First of all, the guy to your right should have minraised under the gun with any two cards. Clearly you'll only play when he's beat so he's protected from elimination. Since the blinds are expected to fold, he's got a huge expectation. But who the hell is going to do that?
Also, you should be all-in on slightly more than 50% of your hands! Obviously this is an instapush, as are any two cards in the small blind. Since the small blind's VP$IP suggests he won't make a voluntary bet before being eliminated, you should always play when he's the big blind to prevent him from playing on a forced bet!
As I said though, they aren't complete morons. I really dislike the suggestion that you should push about five times before the bubble ends, even if it's "correct" to do so.
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caffiend - Whale Hunter
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- Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:02 am
by pokercooler » Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:26 pm
I'm no expert, but the tighter your table image, the more likely either a shove or large raise will scare opponents with all but the strongest hands.
If you believe your opponents are capable of reraise bluffs, a shove might be better, if you believe your opponents are very unlikely to reraise bluff, the smaller raise might be better at giving you leverage while protecting your stack.
I am dog on 2plus2, so no one would listen to me there, as some dogs are pampered, but are often considered to be less intelligent than fish.
If you believe your opponents are capable of reraise bluffs, a shove might be better, if you believe your opponents are very unlikely to reraise bluff, the smaller raise might be better at giving you leverage while protecting your stack.
I am dog on 2plus2, so no one would listen to me there, as some dogs are pampered, but are often considered to be less intelligent than fish.
- pokercooler
- School Fish
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19 posts • Page 2 of 2 • 1, 2
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