Risky bubble play?

[levistep]

I've got 3900 chips on the button, sb has 1500 chips, bb has 3400 chips and 4th guy (folded) has like 2700.
Blinds are 200/400.

Both players are very tight, BB is especially tight. I've got Q7, do I push?

[panhandle88]

That's right on the fence for me. If the blinds are truely very tight then I lean towards the steal. Not sure you need to push though. Wouldn't 1200 to 1500 accomplish the same goal and risk less chips?

[caffiend]

That's right on the fence for me. If the blinds are truely very tight then I lean towards the steal. Not sure you need to push though. Wouldn't 1200 to 1500 accomplish the same goal and risk less chips?

Not always, it leaves you somewhat vulnerable to the squeeze. You're essentially setting the small blind all-in if he decides to play, which is fine. The problem is that half your stack is in the pot, and you'll have a hell of a time calling the big blind if he comes over the top because he's "exceptionally tight."

That's somewhat less of a worry if you're already committed. You're certainly beat if he calls, but you're likely to drive out better hands because he's tight. If the small blind plays, a tight player in the big blind is probably tossing AQ, small aces and kings, small pairs, etc. Basically, you take away most of the hands he'd squeeze with, at the price of being vulnerable to him waking up with a monster.

Instead of $1,200+ the safe play against tight blinds is probably $800. That's small enough to get away from, but big enough to threaten the small blind. And he's all you really worry about, with the big blind being the tightest player and folding into the money. That assumes you're not worried about outplaying the blind if he should call. I don't think that's an issue though, you'll have position on him and he's unlikelyto mix it up against another big stack. Pots like that will usually fall to a small bet on the flop.

[levistep]

Caff, i'm only at the 15/1, but a lot of these guys are sharp. Although that guy is tight, he has no problem pushing over the top knowing that I have to fold. The point of pushing all in his making him fold. Betting 800 gives him the chance to resteal.

[caffiend]

Caff, i'm only at the 15/1, but a lot of these guys are sharp. Although that guy is tight, he has no problem pushing over the top knowing that I have to fold. The point of pushing all in his making him fold. Betting 800 gives him the chance to resteal.

Well, you need to find his magic number. Restealing an $800 raise is going to cost him $1,600. That's quite a bit for a tight player with $3,400 in front of him. It's a massive amount of chips considering everyone's stack size. If he's going to throw half of his chips out there and dare you to put him all-in (or raise and dare you to call) then he's likely to be calling your push anyway.

So yeah, you give him a chance to resteal, but I wouldn't expect to see it too often. Neither of you wants to play a huge pot here. You'll get more calls because of the nice odds, but you get to play them in position. The real danger is you get trapped or outplayed after the flop.

My only point was that $800 is safer than $1,500. The bigger raise really screws you over if someone resteals, and it's just as shitty if both blinds call. With $800 if they both play you can bow out quietly. If you're going to steal, I think it's either $800 or $3,900.

Personally, I could find a fold with Q7 with the small blind that short. I'd be more likely to steal on the next hand, when two average stacks are in the blinds.

[sfustsh]

No, Q7 is garbage, BB still has 10BB and could push over you (which you have to fold) and SB is likely going all the way with a huge range of hands. On the bubble I would rather not jeopardize my strong stack trying to steal blinds when I'll likely have to win a showdown with SB. Even though, on odds, it's probably okay to take it to showdown with SB, the dangers of losing are too great to consider with this hand.

I'd say give me Q9s or QTo I'll make a minraise or a 2.5xBB raise, intending to call the small blind (700~ more) and folding if BB pushes.

The small raise encourages SB to just shove. That's good because BB can't make a play and you were going to call the SB anyway. It also allows you to get away if SB folds and BB gets frisky. Sure, it's weak, but he's still got to have the balls to make the shove, and most players can't do it (especially with a healthy stack. They'd probably be wrong to do so anyway).

Pushing isn't that bad, but you still have ten BB, there's no need to go crazy when BB might have a monster. Betting 3 BB is okay as well, but 2BB or 2.5BB gets the job done and risks less chips. If BB is going to make a play, he's going to do it whether you raise 2.5BB or 3BB

So my choices:
1.) Fold, my favorite choice.
2.) 2 - 2.5BB raise.
3.) Shove.

A small change in hand strength makes the choices closer or flips them a little, but with Q7, you should just dump that trash.

Consider, BB COULD resteal, but why? If SB folds he just got hurt even more, and he's desperate now. No need for him to risk everything on the bubble with a sub-par hand.

[levistep]

Pushing isn't that bad, but you still have ten BB, there's no need to go crazy when BB might have a monster. Betting 3 BB is okay as well, but 2BB or 2.5BB gets the job done and risks less chips. If BB is going to make a play, he's going to do it whether you raise 2.5BB or 3BB

He may have a monster? Only hand he can call with is TT+ or like AQ+. Pretty slim chances he has one of them.

[sfustsh]

Pushing isn't that bad, but you still have ten BB, there's no need to go crazy when BB might have a monster. Betting 3 BB is okay as well, but 2BB or 2.5BB gets the job done and risks less chips. If BB is going to make a play, he's going to do it whether you raise 2.5BB or 3BB

He may have a monster? Only hand he can call with is TT+ or like AQ+. Pretty slim chances he has one of them.

So what? He's going to have a monster whether you raise 10BB or 2.5BB, it's just that you lose 10BB if you shove and 2.5BB if you don't.

[mewsiclovr]

With BB very tight, and sb just tight, this is a push any two.

[levistep]

With BB very tight, and sb just tight, this is a push any two.

Ok, didn't think I was alone on this one. I think this is one of those advanced tactics.

[caffiend]

Ok, didn't think I was alone on this one. I think this is one of those advanced tactics.

I don't know how adavanced it is. So far you've given the big blind a pretty wide gap. He'll call with AQ+, TT+ but raise with any two? I don't know if I'm buying it. On top of that, with about three blinds left, the small blind's looking for places to get involved. I know he's tight, but damn.

I'd be interesting to see the ICM value. On gut instinct though, I suspect this "advanced tactic" wins you the blinds when they both have worse hands than Q7 and eliminates you whenever one of them has a better hand. The only real value you have is when the small blind's got a worse hand and the big blind tosses something like KJ/A7/etc.

Let's not forget that you also lose a lot of value when you prohibit the blinds from playing each other. Suppose you are correct, and the big blind needs TT+ to call. If they're dealt something like A7 and 99 then they'd both fold to your steal. I think it's reasonable to suggest that if you had folded, the small blind would be going home pretty often in that scenario.

[caffiend]

With BB very tight, and sb just tight, this is a push any two.

I suspect that's clearly wrong. The small blind can't fold past the bubble, he has $1,500 and the blinds total $600! Pushing something like 23o here is about as close as you can get to minimizing your fold equity. Of all the hands that beat you, he's calling with a bunch.

This is also a hand in a vacum. It's four handed, so anytime you're not a blind is a steal situation. They're tight/very tight, not stupid/complete moron. Even if you only do it on the button, I've got to think somebody will quickly catch on.

[LadyWrestler]

I would fold Q7 here, and let those 2 battle it out if they want to, so basically I am staying out of this discussion. I will keep watching this thread, though. Maybe I can learn something.

[caffiend]

I would fold Q7 here, and let those 2 battle it out if they want to, so basically I am staying out of this discussion. I will keep watching this thread, though. Maybe I can learn something.

I'm wondering, and I doubt anyone can answer it either way, if pushing here doesn't increase your odds of finishing first while folding increases your expectation in payout dollars. That is, it slightly increases your chances of 1st, and drastically lowers your shot at 2nd or 3rd.

[levistep]

I'll see what 2+2 thinks.