flopped set, I really messed up this hand, fire away

[bram]

why is this hand messed up?

I'd raise to 13 or push

I may as well say this hand is pretty messed up because I just called.

jesus at least you had the guts to post this, calling here is so horrible, put people on a RANGE and play accordingly, don't just get scared and assume they have a monster.

(This goes for me too, but I do the opposite and raise when their range means I should just call/fold)

[mewsiclovr]

[ugignadl]

I used to just put people on a range and then play accordingly. Now I put people on a range, and then on a particular hand in that range. Then I play that re-evaluating on every street. My current problem is that I still have trouble working out standard lines for a substandard villain on the river. That can lose you value and FE.

[bram]

I used to just put people on a range and then play accordingly. Now I put people on a range, and then on a particular hand in that range. Then I play that re-evaluating on every street. My current problem is that I still have trouble working out standard lines for a substandard villain on the river. That can lose you value and FE.

ON a particular hand?! wow, My general hand thinking during a hand (spesh HU) is something like
"how has he been playing generally - stats, emotionally due to cadence of the game"
"what did he do preflop in this hand"
"what happened on the flop, how strong is my hand, what is he checking/calling/raising with, how does MY hand stack up to his range given his actions, what is the flop texture?"
this continues as the hand progresses

my biggest leak at the moment is not being concious of working this out and making -EV calls on the river.

[sfustsh]

I used to just put people on a range and then play accordingly. Now I put people on a range, and then on a particular hand in that range. Then I play that re-evaluating on every street. My current problem is that I still have trouble working out standard lines for a substandard villain on the river. That can lose you value and FE.

Bolded important part.

When I first read the hand, I said to myself "Well I guess there aren't a lot of hands that fours full beats here". But then, I realized, you know what? What is the most transparent way for someone in the small blind to play their specific range of hands?

Let's say I'm villain. I'm stupid, don't think about what other players think I have or what I'm representing. I've got 74, and I flop top two. What do I do? Checkraise! DAH!! So I don't think your run of the mill villain at this limit has a full house when the 7 comes off on the turn. He'd checkraise that shit on the flop or slowplay it all the way to the river like a true moron.

But, if I'm villain and all I've flopped is top pair, I need to protect my hand, so I make a strong, out of position bet. Okay, fair enough, but now I've been called. On the turn I've made trips (the question "what could my opponent have" hasn't crossed my mind yet). Great! My hand has just improved considerably (in reality his hand hardly improved, now all he's beating is an unlikely overpair).

So what I've learned through my experience with this type of villain, if they have a really strong hand (or a really weak one) they check and call. They slowplay too much. If they have a hand that they think is strong (like in this case) they check and raise, because they love the check/raise. Few villains will check raise the turn with a full house. Check and call usually.

I had a hand just the other day with a villain in the blinds. In the big blind I had KJo. There was one limper and the SB completed. The flop was king high, and the SB bet out. I just called and the limper folded. The turn was another king. He checked. Now let's say I'm villain. Here I am on fourth street and the next king came off.

"Well I've got second pair but that king came off which means it's unlikely that he's got trips, so I bet!" So villain hasn't got second pair., because he would have bet if he had second pair! Maybe he's got nothing?
Nah.

"OMG I just made trips. The obvious play in this situation is to checkraise."
And indeed that's what villain did. He checkraised me, and then I looked at my jack kicker and said shit that's good enough to gamble and I reraised all in. Sure enough the jack was good enough to ship it.

The moral of the story is that this type of villain makes the kind of mistakes you expect him to make. He thinks about his hand, he thinks about what the best 'deceptive' move might be. They checkraise too much, they slowplay too much, they overvalue their hands, they don't play their kickers, they don't make the right moves to manage the pot size, they make bet sizes based on what they hold, not what they think you hold. So when a dumbass villain checkraises you on a 7742 board, he has three sevens, almost every time. If he had a better full house he'd have checked and called and made a big bet on the river.

I remember Ugi posted a message a few days ago where he said that he assumes villains are good until they prove themselves otherwise. That's good advice, but you lose a lot of value at these limits because frankly they make such ridiculous and transparent moves.

I mean, this hand is just Occam's razor. He COULD have a full house. He COULD have checkraised the turn with a full house, hoping you made trips. But that's complicated and unlikely. What is likely is that he has top pair, bets out on the flop, makes trips on the turn and check raises. It's a donkey move for a donkey player. Credit him for the donkey hand.

That was longer and more rambling than I really wanted but whatever!