A 5CD hand

[sfustsh]

PokerStars Game #9310485967: 5 Card Draw Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/04/08 - 01:15:31 (ET)
Table 'Lioba II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: NTXKQ8 ($12.40 in chips)
Seat 3: SMILEY7310 ($8.75 in chips)
Seat 5: sfustsh ($30.90 in chips)
Seat 6: win-4-nin ($33.65 in chips)
SMILEY7310: posts small blind $0.25
paghjayan: is sitting out
sfustsh: posts big blind $0.50
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to sfustsh [4h 5h 7s 6s 2s]
paghjayan leaves the table
win-4-nin: folds
NTXKQ8: calls $0.50
SMILEY7310: calls $0.25
sfustsh: checks
SMILEY7310: discards 1 card
sfustsh: discards 1 card [2s]
Dealt to sfustsh [4h 5h 7s 6s] [8h]
NTXKQ8: discards 1 card
SMILEY7310: bets $1
sfustsh: ....

ML is sweating me here; we were talking about the hand afterwards and what the best play might be.

I'm not gonna add my thoughts right here, but the previous hand I raised predraw with AA. He called and drew one. I drew 3, and he flat folded before my turn.

[mewsiclovr]

sfu is good luck. My trips-drew-quads > pat flush. That is all.

[biggle10]

I just flat call. Anything you beat is likely not going to call a raise and you get 3 bet a lot here.

[sfustsh]

I folded. My thoughts:

1. Villain just limped in predraw, so he doesn't have two pair or trips (the only other hands he MIGHT draw 1 to)
2. If he made a pat hand, his median is a jack high flush, and it's very (VERY) unlikely that he has a worse pat hand than me. I hold a 2, 4, 5, and a 7, so I have low cards locked up. He's either bluffing or he's not.
3. Villain's a moron. He flat folded his missed draw last hand, and unless he was setting up for a bluff (unlikely) then betting is contrary to his 'style'.
4. There's another villain behind me. He might have hit his draw as well.

But I might call because:
1. I'm getting 2.5 to 1, those are good odds to be right.
2. Both me and the third villain just drew 1, indicating that we were on the come. If neither of us helped, he can easily steal this pot, which he might just be doing.
3. If he hit his pat hand, why wouldn't he just pot it? He knows we've either got something or we don't.
4. This would be huge info that might make me some cash on later hands.


If I could play the hand over, I would have called, but I think that it's only marginally +EV to call here. I felt pretty good about the fold at the time, but neglected my pot odds once again.