5/10 HU - another simple river

[cavman]

This hand is similar to my last hand in that I just want a river call or raise decision. Comment on any earlier street if you want. Blinds are normal for HU.

We've been playing somewhat tight for heads up. Should I just call this river or shove? This is the first time we've gotten to the river after he 3-bet pre-flop. But he has 3-bet me somewhat frequently preflop (i guess that means AT+, KQ, 99+, and maybe a few others, etc).

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $2396
BB: $1556

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $110, Hero calls.

Flop: ($220, 2 players)
BB bets $180, Hero calls.

Turn: ($580, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($580, 2 players)
BB bets $430, Hero ...

[poormanbilly]

What hand, that you beat, would he call a river raise/push with?

[sfustsh]

I think it would have been easier to make a decision if you bet the turn.

It's very unlikely that he has AK given that three aces are locked up. Instead he more likely has something like kings or jacks. Besides, lots of other things within his 3bet range you beat, AJ, AT, TT. In fact you 'only' lose to AK and 99.

After you called and checked behind after 2 aces fell I would think my kings were good on the river. It's possible he put you on a FD on the flop and tried to let you get there by checking the turn if he had nines.

Anyway, you don't have a good idea of what he's got and he can bet the river with a wide range of hands. That's fine, but unless he has got an ace or a full house he's not going to call if you shove. I think I just call, even though his bet looks more like a value bet than a bluff, since you beat a lot of what he can hold.

I would probably play the hand the same until the turn, where I'd bet about half the pot or 2/3 pot intending to fold to a shove.

[easy_as_pie]

i'd just call

very thin value shove i think

he might call with AJ and A10

[cavman]

What hand, that you beat, would he call a river raise/push with?

i'm always surprised at what people call with. i think he's going to call this push with most aces. he also might think a pair bigger than nines is good. he had also made a couple somewhat ballsy calls on the river earlier in the match, but the context was completely different than this scenario.

My thinking is that i'm rarely beat, and i want to give him a chance to make a mistake. also, my line doesn't really rep much, even if it looks kinda strong. it wouldn't be outrageous for someone to play a flush draw like this. also, i think the only hands i'm losing to are 99 and AK, so even if he only calls with AJ & AT, it's still a profitable shove.

let me know if any of this thinking is way off. i'll give results later (but i did shove)

[poormanbilly]

What hand, that you beat, would he call a river raise/push with?

i'm always surprised at what people call with.

I agree with this, especially online.....still, I agree with pie and think it's pretty thin. My feeling is he has shit and thus won't call any bet unless he was slow playing a monster. I think a strong ace (AK, AQ) keeps betting on the turn. When he bets on the river, it's either air or a very good hand IMO.

[nlman]

You are ahead as I can't think of any hand that's beating you that would play it like this (unless he showed himself as a very complicated player earlier).

I'd try to make a reraise based on his play (is he more likely to call a shove: "wow!!! he went all-in, that's gotta be a bluff!!! CALL CALL CALL!!!", or a value reraise: "wow!!! look at those pot odds!!! CALL CALL CALL!!!").

If I was sure that this is a bluff/blocking bet and he won't call anything at all, I guess I could just call to see what he has.

[easy_as_pie]

from villains point of view I would play trip AK-A10 like that pretty often HU
especially vs. someone like cav

also, he might have 7c8c or just 78of

in any case, i think that its a thin shove. i just dont see him calling with many hands that hero beats her

[poormanbilly]

So did he have pocket 9s or what?

[mirage]

So did he have pocket 9s or what?

[cavman]

he called with AJ.

i'm still not sure if this is a good push or not though. i agree that it is very thin and just calling his river bet is definitely not a bad option. But i do think he's going to have trouble laying down any ace- and some people love to make big calls when they are suspicious, and i wanted to give him a chance to do that. I just got lucky that I was barely ahead this time.