A satellite hand for instructional purposes

[Linuxrocks]

PP I understand you like using math but where exactly are you getting your number from? You are assuming and assigning possibilites which is what poker is all about, and like a said in my earlier post my range of hands I put the short stack on is huge, the range I put the flat call is also big, therefore my hand is dominating both of their ranges. I still don't think its easy call or easy fold but I still think its +ev to call.

Ok, show me your ranges and math and convince me that a 50% chance of winning after folding is worse EV than calling.

[bigdil511]

PP like I said or tried to say I only rely on math the majority of the time in regards to pot odds. In a situation like this I wouldn't even know where to get numbers from in order to apply them in a mathematical equation. So what I am trying to say to you is that your numbers are what you think the situation would be, so it doesn't make it a concrete answer. What your math suggests is based on the numbers you plugged in, so if your numbers are flawed in any way your final answer would also be incorrect. Basically what I am trying to get across is what I expect out of the situation, I expect shorstack to have a random two, and the big stack to have 77+, AJs+, based on the range I put them on I believe a call is correct. Prove me wrong based on my ranges, like I said I think its close but I don't think its a clear fold.

[Linuxrocks]

The problem is that you have to make some assumptions and I think your assumptions are wrong. The shorty will not have any two. This is not a MTT and people are not going to throw away 55$ on ATC when they are so close to money, spent two hours and there are even shorter stacks. At this stage, you can actually look at all the remaining tables and guess in which order people are going to bust. The second guy's range is not bad, but still I think it's too loose for a situation like this.

Let's go with your ranges and see what happens.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

81,949,157,136 games 185.867 secs 440,902,135 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.496% 50.62% 00.87% 41483751720 716593267.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 16.154% 15.89% 00.26% 13021635432 216159797.00 { random }
Hand 2: 32.351% 31.45% 00.90% 25773408046 737608874.00 { 77+, AJs+ }


So, we win 50% of the time and that puts right at the same place as folding 50% of the time. Now, this is a grossly loose range for a satellite in this situation IMO. That's like the left most you can go. Any other reasonable range, EV_call - EV_fold is going to be negative.

[bigdil511]

PP sorry took your hand and ran with it, I wasn't thinking of it as a satellite hand, was thinking as MTT. So I agree with you in satellite situation what do you do in a regular MTT?

[Linuxrocks]

In a regular MTT, this kind of situation doesn't arise, I mean with these kind of stacks. so close to buble, such pay structure etc. You will have to re-define the problem which will change the variables completely. In a normal MTT pay-structure is top-heavy, so it's usually a call.

[ugignadl]

PP sorry took your hand and ran with it, I wasn't thinking of it as a satellite hand, was thinking as MTT. So I agree with you in satellite situation what do you do in a regular MTT?

Pretty easy call in an MTT, IMO, for the reasons PP stated in the above post.

[LadyWrestler]

PP sorry took your hand and ran with it, I wasn't thinking of it as a satellite hand, was thinking as MTT. So I agree with you in satellite situation what do you do in a regular MTT?

I was confused about that, too. I have never even played in a satellite...my experiences are mostly in SNG's, and Cash games, with an occasional MTT (and not many of those).

[tisko]

I think the miscellaneous topics part of HoH II also has some good explanation about when and why correct satellite strategy can be counter-intuitive.

[alanpsych]

Even if you know you're up against 2 hands you beat, e.g. TT and AJo, you can still make a good argument for a fold here. All the math aside, the fact that you understand the theory of qualifier tournies, while there are players who will flip for their entire stacks when they could coast into top 13, gives you better odds than the ev calculations would indicate even.

When you do get involved, it will be when you are first in and have some FE.

[tightpoker]

Late to chime in on this thread, but my in the line of fire reaction would have been to fold. Two guys going at it, 15 players left, one guy going out or cripple stacked for sure and other small stacks at the table. Jump from bubble to sat winners is huge, so I'm just hiding under the sheets and waiting for the boogeyman to pass..