30+3 folding KK early??

[robe2584]

9 hands into the tournament 'egadui' hadn't played a hand yet. I read him as tight, obviously the wrong read, does anyone else lay this down? After my raise was called, then minraised, then raised allin, I'm thinking that I can find better spots. Looking forward to your thoughts.


Table $12K Guaranteed(545838) Table #27 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: homey6969196 ( $810 )
Seat 3: tcro7873 ( $485 )
Seat 4: egadui ( $985 )
Seat 5: avanr ( $2070 )
Seat 6: besar ( $1675 )
Seat 7: flushexpress ( $1000 )
Seat 8: robb1661 ( $975 )
Seat 9: gofpro35 ( $2380 )
Seat 10: dddnorton ( $940 )
Trny:18500271 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to robb1661 [ Kc Kh ]
besar calls [15].
flushexpress folds.
robb1661 raises [75].
gofpro35 calls [75].
dddnorton folds.
homey6969196 folds.
tcro7873 raises [135].
MFS_WooD has joined the table.
Player MFS_WooD has been moved from table 40 to this table
egadui is all-In [975]
avanr folds.
besar folds.
robb1661 folds.
gofpro35 folds.
tcro7873 is all-In [350]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2c, Td, 6h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
tcro7873 shows [ Qs, Qh ] two pairs, queens and twos.
egadui shows [ As, Ts ] two pairs, tens and twos.
egadui wins 500 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, tens and twos.
tcro7873 wins 1150 chips from the main pot with two pairs, queens and twos.

[robe2584]

The more I watch this tournament 'egadui' is obviously not a very good player. But, although he didn't know what he was doing, the play he made was a very good one. It's the squeeze play that Harrington talked about in book 1, you can get the original raiser to fold out strength behind a call and reraise. I think this hand is a great example of that move, regardless of whether or not my fold was correct.

[puckhead23]

I'd have an incredibly difficult time laying KK down here. My rule of thumb is to treat players like the "average online player" until there is enough evidence to prove otherwise. My guess is the average player is at least as likely to have an inferior hand to KK as they are to have AA. That said, I've gone broke after being showed AA, and I've doubled up over inferior hands in similar situations. The important thing here is you made a read, and you had sound reasoning.

One of the biggest difficulties of playing online versus live is the lack of physical clues. Being able to make a read on not even one orbit of play with no physical presence is one of the most difficult things we are forced to do in online poker. This is evidenced by the number of posts that start "3rd hand of the tournament; no reads; what should I have done with XX?".

It's impossible to make perfect reads with imperfect information all of the time. Based on how early it is in the tournament, a "correct read" doesn't exist here, because how can you make a read with incredibly limited information? You can have a hypothesis, but that's all. After all, how many times have you went 9 hands without seeing a face card? I think the "average player" is capable of throwing away 83o, 92o, 74o every time and wake up with QQ and think he's invincible. You could have a either a tight player or an average player with cold cards, and it's impossible to be sure which after just 9 hands.

In short, if you have a style that works, keep it up. Hands like this happen to all of us at one time or another.

[bobcorn]

Never lay down KK in an MTT. There are a very select few times you would lay it down in a sng but never in a MTT, at least at the low limits.

[iplaycards]

I know who to bluff . But seriously I think folding KK here is crazy. One reason being it's early on in a 30 online mtt and I havn't seen enough hands on any one person to say that my kings aren't good. I don't respect players untill later on when I have seen more and more of them. Sklansky says there are times when you would fold KK pre flop, he gives real examples. WSOP main event a raiser in the first level and you make it like 2k with KK he's all in. He said he has seen this happen 5 times and everytime the KK calls and loses to AA. Also what fish mcgriff did was not the squeeze play that harrington talks about. Harrington says to fold here unless you to have a very strong hand like AA or KK. He says fold even AK I believe. Look at the hand more closly. You make it 75 and golfpro calls then someone else reraises and then fish mcgriff is all in not the squeeze play. Also he says to use this play late not so early in a mtt. Personlly I'd call here with my kings and live with the results. But like puckhead said if you have a strategy and it's working more power to ya.

[robe2584]

Yeah, I hear what you guys are saying. My thought process was that I could make it deep in the tournament without making a stand with KK on that particular hand.

I figured I'd just muck and wait til I had better chances to to accumulate. What else could he have had?? He saw a 15 call, a 75 raise, 75 call, 135 reraise, then he goes allin. This is a 30 MTT, in the middle of the day, I factor in that players might be more tight than when Party has 65,000 players online later at night. I think that at best I'm way ahead to QQ/JJ/AK with one or two of his aces counterfeited probably. At worst I'm way behind to AA. I factor in that after a full orbit he hadn't played a hand, although that is a hugely weak sample size, I've got to think that at the very least, he is more tight than average. Also, I factor in that if I fold I still feel I'm an even shot to money in the tournament. All said and done, I lean toward folding and choose to fight it out (and in hindsight I'm a passive little girl). Oh well.

Just playing the devil's advocate here a little bit, I wanted to let you know my reasoning.

[tightpoker]

Short message, but the thing is to not give players respect until you think they deserve it. Especially at the low limits. I could be in a $1,000 buy-in tournament and someone could pull the same move and I'd still move on them with KK. I wouldn't put it past them to have AK, QQ or JJ - all of which I dominate with a vengeance.

The AA to KK will bite you a few times, but the KK slamming the AK/QQ/JJ/TT/etc will be far more often.