Hand versus thinking player

[biggle10]

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises, 3 folds, SB =#A500AF(2p2er)/ calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) , , (3 players)
2p2er checks, BB checks, Hero bets, 2p2er raises, BB calls, Hero ???

SB is a suspected 2p2er (or a thinking player for the matters of this discussion). BB is LPP.

[ugignadl]

The real problem is a small set. I have to say, I'm not sure what I'd do here. He could be protecting his hand, or he could be c-r-ing with TPTK, or he could simply be bluffing. You can beat AJ-, and any pockets apart from those which make a set on the flop. Out of those I'd be worried about 44 and 55 only since AA surely would have seen a PFR. Outs against a set are minimal.

I'd like to think he'd PFR with AK, but maybe not. His play screams to me small set; pretty loud as well. Do I believe him...not sure. It's 6-handed, and it's limit, so after this I would get to the river as cheap as possible (barring crazy cards). If that means a few more bets then fine (2.5 BB max I guess, isn't that much...).

Perhaps someone better than me at limit could give a better response, but that's my train of thought. I don't see myself folding here, which could be a mistake.

[goofyballer]

2p2er checkraises you on the flop?? HOLD THE PHONE!!! Easy calldown. I don't like a 3-bet because it gives away your strength.

[puckhead23]

I'd be worried about being beat to a small set, but I would want to showdown as cheaply as possible. Call the flop, and check call the rest of the way. If, after my check, a bet is made and then it is raised, I'm folding.

[caffiend]

The real problem is a small set.

No, the real problem is that dickcheese in the middle calling two cold with his shitty Big Blind Special. The 2+2er only check raised to make it two to the big blind and get heads up with Biggle. Be like me, and play like a panzy.

Cappity cap, cap, cap. The 2+2er has second pair or a weak ace. If he had a set he'd lead out and get an extra half bet from the big blind before cutting him off. The other blind probably has a ratty flush draw, but you aren't getting rid of him at any price now, so you may as well charge him rather than keep the pot small.

[goofyballer]

If Mr. 2+2er has a weak ace or second pair, doesn't he insta-fold to a three-bet, or peel one off on the turn and then fold UI? Why not let him think he's ahead with those hands and keep betting at us?

[alanpsych]

Feel free to mock me without mercy, but no one has mentioned the first thing I thought of, which is a FLUSH DRAW. This is exactly how a 2+2er (and I) would play one of those. 2p2ers are also notorious believers in calling any 2 suited in the BB. A weaker A, or even a PP like 66-77, trying to find out where he stands is also very plausible.

I don't think you can decide what he has by his flop raise alone. You could try check-raising yourself on the turn, which would let you know how strong he is. A calldown would make sense, although I'm not sure it's best. Folding seems wrong.

[caffiend]

If Mr. 2+2er has a weak ace or second pair, doesn't he insta-fold to a three-bet, or peel one off on the turn and then fold UI? Why not let him think he's ahead with those hands and keep betting at us?

Because of the big blind. If the check raise had worked and eliminated the third player I'd agree that you should call then smack him on the turn. But since it didn't work and he fell on his face you may as well kick him while he's down.

In a three handed pot it's probably better to continue showing significant strength on the flop and not cause yourself problems later on. After all, if he peels one and folds unimproved that's good news for you because you're heads up with the big blind on the river. One opponent is probably the flush draw, two opponents and you risk someone miracling two pair or a river set.

By just calling the flop you surrender the best position to the 2+2 guy and put him in the drivers seat. A number of cards will be scary on the turn, but he can bet with impunity knowing you're committed to calling down. Even worse if you do have the best hand you lose out on getting paid off extra from the big blind because he can also just call, rather than being stuck in the middle.

[caffiend]

Feel free to mock me without mercy, but no one has mentioned the first thing I thought of, which is a FLUSH DRAW. This is exactly how a 2+2er (and I) would play one of those. 2p2ers are also notorious believers in calling any 2 suited in the BB. A weaker A, or even a PP like 66-77, trying to find out where he stands is also very plausible.

It's possible, but somewhat less likely given that he's the small blind and you have two big clubs showing. I don't know how many people call a raise from under the gun with a suited king, he'd almost have to have suited broadways. The Ace and Queen are out, so that leaves KJs, KTs, JTs and those are pretty marginal holdings here.

Besides, check raising the flush draw is criminally stupid with a player in the middle. So, it's possible a 2+2er would do it. The last thing you ought to be doing with the big blind fishing is knock him out of the pot. Unless we're supposing nobody in this raised pot has an ace or pair big enough to call down with. That's a stretch. Maybe it's a small flush draw, but then what're you giving him, that he called a lone raise with a suited connector? Also odd.

I think most 2+2ers raise any playable pair preflop to get heads up. So I'd give him second pair if he had reraised. But since he didn't I find it hard to credit 77 or better.

Which leaves weak aces, really. I could see a cold call here with AJ, AT, and similar. The suited versions yield playable draws three handed, and the offsuit versions are likely ahead of the big blind. If you get to the flop relatively cheap you may crack many hands that could open for a raise. A check raise here can find out if you're up against AK in addition to cutting off the big blind. This just makes the most sense to me if he's a 2+2er.

That's a bad board to leave top pair or a set unprotected on though, a free card could easily spell disaster three handed. If it were me, I'd bet out either of those and hope Biggle raised so I had two shots at knocking out the big blind. At the very least I'd build a big pot with the best hand. On the other hand, a middle pair is a decent check raise. If everyone checks I get a free shot at making a set, and if a scary card comes for free it's an easy fold. But again, something like 99 I'd have expected to be raised preflop.

In either case, you're ahead and should consider pushing him down the stairs.

[goofyballer]

Besides, check raising the flush draw is criminally stupid with a player in the middle. So, it's possible a 2+2er would do it.

POTD!

And yeah, I completely didn't see the big blind cold-calling, I thought the pot was HU so um yeah ignore my last post.

[alanpsych]

I'm starting to get the distinct sense that Caffiend isn't overly impressed with the 2p2 crowd. Just a hunch...