PoorManBilly's pot odds problem (from CS$200 Freeroll)

[scotty1139]

Assume no reads. I regard this as largely a mathematical problem. Just 2 options. Call the rest of our chips allin with great pot odds, or fold with 4xBB left?

------HAND 102------
Game #1454759833: Hold'em NL (150/300) - 2005/11/29 - 21:34:55 (ET)
Table "TightPoker FR 1406182 - 1" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Carrera2 (3845 in chips)
Seat 2: mcjdpj sits out
Seat 3: sm89 (12985 in chips)
Seat 4: PMBilly (1675 in chips)
Seat 5: tuttobene (8615 in chips)
Seat 7: bobcorn (1610 in chips)
Seat 8: sellex (3580 in chips)
Seat 9: sixguns (2050 in chips)
Seat 10: BluffTTU (2425 in chips)
sm89: posts the ante 25
PMBilly: posts the ante 25
tuttobene: posts the ante 25
bobcorn: posts the ante 25
sellex: posts the ante 25
sixguns: posts the ante 25
BluffTTU: posts the ante 25
Carrera2: posts the ante 25
mcjdpj: posts the ante 25
sm89: posts small blind 150
PMBilly: posts big blind 300
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to tuttobene [5c 2c]
tuttobene: folds
bobcorn: raises to 1585 and is all-in
sellex: folds
sixguns: raises to 2025 and is all-in
BluffTTU: folds
Carrera2: folds
mcjdpj: folds
mcjdpj sits back
sm89: calls 1875
PMBilly:How do you play it? We have [As 4s] We're getting roughly 3.84:1 to call here

[hultin]

I think your dominated here. Probably have to fold even for the pot odds.

[goofyballer]

I think best case scenario, you're up against two Ax's better than your own and your 4 (as in your 4 kicker) outs are clean. That gives you a 25% chance of winning the hand, requiring 3:1 odds, which you aren't getting. So the pot odds likely say no, and something I think is even a more important factor says no as well: you're calling off your tournament with a shitty hand behind a raise and re-raise from solid players. Fuck that. Fold.

[scotty1139]

Goofy,

I think you've missed the fact that sm cold calls the two all-ins right before us. That puts so much money in the pot. We can only win as much as we have in front of us, so that's 1675 x the two stacks that have us covered + the 1585 shortstack + 250 antes = 5185 / 1350 to call = 3.84:1. Will we win this hand greater than 20.6% of the time?

[goofyballer]

Ohh, I did miss that cold-call, so I only had around 2.8:1.

I still fold. Pot odds are close, but if you figure a couple Ax's and a pair you're way behind (13%). Best case scenario is being up against three pairs, which gives you 27%, but how often does that happen? I hate calling off your tournament in such a marginal spot - especially a tournament which was reputed to be such a donkfest. There have to be better spots to get your chips in. I made a post on the old forum once about calling off your tournament on a gutshot on the turn when you have odds, and looking at the mathematical result of calling vs. folding from a $EV standpoint - an extreme example certainly, but it showed that calling off your tournament on a longshot (versus getting 2:1 odds on a coinflip, for example, which is much more acceptable) is a really bad idea.

[scotty1139]

At the time, I thought calling was the right play, but now that I've run his hand against a large range of probable hands, it's not nearly the auto-call I thought it to be. He's under 20% in every instance where there is another A/x out. Like you mentioned, it only surpasses 20% when his ace is live, which is extremely unlikely given the action in front.

[poormanbilly]

Huh... glad to know that something came out of my play last night. Sorry to know that I donked my chips off and everyone knows it I never thought it was very clear cut. When I saw my hand, I had pretty much decided to play it. With all the action in front of me, I had to think twice. I ALMOST folded and still think that’s probably the better play (although I voted for what I did ). There wasn’t any guarantee that the action wouldn’t be similar the next hand, so I thought this might have been my best shot at getting back into the mix. Oh yeah... plus they were sooooted!

[carrera]

More importantly, I finally know your nick that you would never tell me