Poker Tracker and variance

[puckhead23]

I do not have the opportunity to play more than 200-300 hands a week. In order to have enough hands to determine how good a player I am would take me forever to amass. It would take me the better part of a year to hit 10K. One's game can change dramatically over that kind of time horizon, so I don't think waiting that long will tell me much.

In order to estimate variance in my earnings, I was thinking about taking the counts of each hand I play (eg. I played 14 AA hands, 21 AKo, 15 AKs, etc.) off of Poker Tracker and calculating the overall EV by using the EV guide on the website. So, if the EV of AA is +2.0 BB, I should have won 28BB (14 hands x 2.0BB), and do this for every hand I play. By comparing my total EV to my actual win rate, I could figure out how variance impacts my earnings and determine if I am on a sustainable run.

Has anyone tried anything similar? Any holes in my logic?

[j]

there is a big problem here and the main thing is the application of those results and the validity of what you are trying to find out. Just the fact that the variance you are trying to find is based on MANY different situations of the same hands that you have played, not just the 5-10 times you had KK. So it might be interesting to see the results, but how applicable they are to the long run is still not certain. It may or may not be a good indicator of your variance in the long term. There is no sure fire way of getting this from the data you have, so anything you do will be a rough estimate. All you can do is make the best guess you can, this method may or may not help you do that. FYI -- several things are estimated by doing a smaller subset of the same problem, so go for it and see what you get.