MTT hand: tp + nut flush draw blind battle

[alanpsych]

This hand occurred in a PP freeroll last night. I'm pretty much exclusively a limit nerd now, but I like to dabble in tournaments while playing on another (limit) table. Sorry about not using a converter, but I don't have the hand with me, so I'm not going to be totally accurate.

Blinds are 200/400. Hero is BB with 11K chips, villian is SB with 13K chips. I've been on a nice run, going from being a desperate low stack going all in for my last 6BB with KTs from ep to where I am now. Quite honestly, I've been stealing the table blind, including the bigger stacks, so I probably have the image of being a bit reckless. The SB has seen me aggressively betting into the bigger stacks, but hasn't been at the table too long and hasn't been very active yet.

Anyway:

folded to Villian in SB, who calls.
Hero checks with As8s. (??) Pot = 600
Flop: Ad 6s 4s
Villian bets 300
Hero raises to 600
Villian raises all in (there might have been 1 more raise each, but it's obvious that all the chips are going in)
Hero???

The questions are:

Is the flush draw enough to want to risk it all on what might be only 9 outs?
What do you put the Villian on here (I'll give you my thoughts later), especially given my recent run and aggression? Would he really limp with 44 or 66, as those hands are so difficult to play post-flop, or with a bigger A? Could he be on a draw as well (flush or str8, e.g. 75s)?
Is there any way to justify a fold here?

[mervhage]

Exactly what type of player is the Villain? If a weak player limps from the SB and we're heads up, then I'll definitely raise him from the BB here. If he's a tricky player or has folded many hands uncontested from the SB, then a warning bell would go off in my head.

You understand that you can only beat 4 hands right now (including other pocket pairs other than 66 and 44), A2, A3, A5, A7 and you're behind AA, A6, A4, 64, 66, 44 and A9>. He might have at least two pair, but provided your flush draw, this hand has a monster draw backup. I'd get all in and expect him to turn over two pair, but you have plenty of outs against two pair.

Here's a simulation of the worst case scenario for you. Against any set you still win 30% of the time and against two pair, you're 45% chance to win. If he has 64, then you're actually favored on the flop.

As far as justifying a fold, of course you can, but I think you're hand is too good.

[bobcorn]

I don't see how he could limp with a better Ace here so it does look like he has 2 pair. The most likely hand for him to have is 64 IMO. Against that hand you have 14 outs and given the dead money in the pot you should call. He also could be doing this with middle pair if he thinks you are bluffing (you said your image was loose).

It is a freeroll...so he probably doesn't care that much if he busts out which could lead him to be more aggressive.

[alanpsych]

Good feedback, you two. My sense was that, even if I'm behind, the flush draw was enough. He hadn't been at the table long, and hadn't really played any hands, but he'd seen me play a couple, so I had no real read, except that he probably wasn't too crazy.

Turns out he had A6o, so both your instincts are right about the two pair. This isn't that bad a situation, since I have 3 8's as outs as well, but I seem to have a bad habit of going all in on flush draws, probably from watching Aaron Kanter too much on the WSOP

Thanks again for the feedback. It looks as though it's probably about a coin flip situation. I have a lot of trouble laying hands like this down. Last night, it was getting late, and so I might have been a little more careful if I didn't want to get to bed, but I still might have just gone for it.

[mervhage]

So what was the outcome?