Tight Poker

[poormanbilly]

I need some thoughts on this hand.

Villain is 23/5/2.7. I haven't played a lot of hands at this table so far (<30), but I've been very tight and haven't shown down anything. I should have a decent amount of respect to a thinking player. I haven't seen villain do anything stupid.

What kind of range should I be thinking he has here? I know it's pretty large, but what thoughts should I have in a situation like this?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $163.90
UTG+1: $137.10
Hero: $100
Button: $109.35
SB: $120.40
BB: $92.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $18, Hero ??

[ugignadl]

I'd put him on any pair < AA and think I have about 11 outs. No reads so I am discounting the combo draw. Even with big hands you have at least 9 outs. I would call this. I don't think a push is called often enough.

[poormanbilly]

I'd put him on any pair < AA and think I have about 11 outs. No reads so I am discounting the combo draw. Even with big hands you have at least 9 outs. I would call this. I don't think a push is called often enough.

What does that mean?

[ugignadl]

Ah in the not insignificant percentage of the time that villain has a smaller flush draw or the straight draw and your A-high is good, and also in the not insignificant percentage of the time where he bets the turn, you push there and he folds...you get the turn monies as well.

You asked what I would be thinking, I'd be thinking ``He isn't going to call a push often enough'' unless I had some read.

[poormanbilly]

Ah in the not insignificant percentage of the time that villain has a smaller flush draw or the straight draw and your A-high is good, and also in the not insignificant percentage of the time where he bets the turn, you push there and he folds...you get the turn monies as well.

You asked what I would be thinking, I'd be thinking ``He isn't going to call a push often enough'' unless I had some read.

That's an interesting thought, so let's dwell on it a little more.

Let's say villain has
1) What is my fold equity on the flop?
2) What is my fold equity on the turn when a falls?
3) What is my fold equity on the turn when a falls?


Contrast that with him having
1) How much do I win or lose by calling the flop and letting him see the turn?

[ugignadl]

Of course, 4 is the ideal scenario. In the other two cases you illustrate my point well.

You have reminded me of a situation which happenned a few weeks ago. In a very similar hand to this I called the flop, and an offsuit Q hits the turn. He bets some very small amount, close to the minimum. I push for about twice the pot. He tanks and folds.

Later we have a similar hand (I play almost ATC in late position). Flush draw again for me, I play it the same (it is my standard line) and he is the villain. This time, I have on a flop with and two other cards, perhaps a 4 and a 7, not sure though. The turn is a king. He bets the minimum again. I push again.

He tanks. He stares me down, and says he thinks I am full of shit. He calls and I don't make my flush. However the river does not bring him another J; he called the turn push with JJ.

After the hand he said he felt good. He tried to impress me by making `subtle' references to our earlier almost identical hand. He said in that hand he also had an overpair, and now he is happy he didn't call then. So am I.

I like this story because it is not obvious the best play for either of us in the second hand. I might not have hit the K. But then, would I have pushed, or called the donk bet? It was fairly obvious he was going to call if I did.

Finally, the story shows that just like in tournaments, ending a hand early sometimes plays into the typical villain's comfort zone. Most forget about the turn, checking it over or betting close to the minimum. This gives them inexperience, and if you can exploit this, the opportunity to gain a lot of value.

Look what you did, making me write a long post like that. Shame!

[neverthink]

Yeah, longest ever Ugi post, bookmarking now .

I only just saw this thread and it lookos like Ugi's given a good analysis anyway, so I'll keep it short. That line that Bill marked out from your first post threw me a little as well, but if you think that flush over flush is possible then letting him make a weaker one is great. If you think he's ambitious enough to call your all in with overs+FD or some kind of combo, I'd still rather get it in on flop.

As for your fold equity, I don't think of it like that really, you're never going to fold out any really good hands like 2 pair or set, but your fine being called by any pairs less than Aces and will fold out the majority of them anyway. Getting it in against those good hands is never great, but your escape hatch isn't too far away and it's image buuilding.

Thing I don't like about calling the flop is you basically give up the pot on the turn when you miss and he bets. I would also rarely just call with a set on the flop as I would want the money in, so shoving draws increases my range for when I am big, and also increases looser calls from made hands that are dogs to or coinflips with my draws. Mixing it up is fine though, we shouldn't do anything the same 100% of the time.

[poormanbilly]

Not that it matters much for where this discussion has gone, but I pushed. I think that's mostly the right move for my style combined with not being that deep, but I like the thoughts of trying to make a move on the turn. I'm still on the fence about giving up a cheap card in order to do that though.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $163.90
UTG+1: $137.10
Hero: $100
Button: $109.35
SB: $120.40
BB: $92.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $18, Hero raises all-in $96, BB calls all-in $70.5.
Uncalled bets: $7.5 returned to Hero.

Turn: ($185.5, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $185.5)


River: ($185.5, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $185.5)


Results:
Final pot: $185.5
Hero showed
BB showed

[sfustsh]

PMB, I think the pot will be just a little too large to make a reasonable move on the turn. I like the way you played it.

EDIT: What I mean to say is that you have very little FE if he decides to bet out on the turn.

[ugignadl]

Villain played his hand terrible. If he was a better player, you'd have had him on the turn, fold or call, but on the flop he should have folded.

Maybe you need to be a little deeper but I'm not totally convinced.

[mervhage]

Villain played his hand terrible. If he was a better player, you'd have had him on the turn, fold or call, but on the flop he should have folded.

Some people just love flush draws and this guy might have figured that his Kings were outs in addition to his flush draw, as it were, both the King and Jack were legitimate outs, but being against a bigger flush draw is killer.

I'm surprised he had what he had, I would have thought a set, initially, especially after you posted the the results and he called the push.

[bram]

Villain played his hand terrible. If he was a better player, you'd have had him on the turn, fold or call, but on the flop he should have folded.

Maybe you need to be a little deeper but I'm not totally convinced.

he had the second nut flush draw and 2 overs, if he put you on 88-1010 then he is ahead, against anything else EXCEPT the nut flush draw he is looking ok.

How should he have played it?

If he calls the flop then a heart comes how is he going to get money in if you check to him?

I'm not saying I call PMB's push as villian but it isn't THAT horrible

[poormanbilly]

Villain played his hand terrible. If he was a better player, you'd have had him on the turn, fold or call, but on the flop he should have folded.

Maybe you need to be a little deeper but I'm not totally convinced.

Knowing me, here is how it would have gone had he just called the flop.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $163.90
UTG+1: $137.10
Hero: $100
Button: $109.35
SB: $120.40
BB: $92.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($20.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero Checks.

River: ($20.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero Checks.

Results:
Final pot: $20.5
Hero showed
BB showed

[mervhage]

You wouldn't bet the turn, picking up additional straight outs? I'd put at least a 1/2 to 3/4 sized pot bet.

[poormanbilly]

You wouldn't bet the turn, picking up additional straight outs? I'd put at least a 1/2 to 3/4 sized pot bet.

It's hard to say knowing what I know now, but I'm a big fan of taking the free card in position. That could be a leak I have. If he has an overpair to the board, I'm still not that far behind, but enough to matter and I might like to see a freebie. *shrug*