Tight Poker

[fifo]

... let me ask another, probably quite stupid, question.

This is, to some extend, quite hypothetical, but does (when it comes to the less clear cut examples) make me wonder.

Assume you hold AA and the flop comes 832 rainbow. Now, obviously, as discussed in previous thread, you're a favourite to win by a considerable margin and therefore bet out.


But let's assume the pot is quite small (8 Bets, let's say) so that betting is equivalent to 1:8 pot odds. Now, anyone out there could have 88, 33 or 22 or any other pocket pair smaller than 9 (noone raised preflop), so any of those cards might give someone trips. So, only Aces are more or less the only real outs for me (let's disregard K, J, Q, T for now), and there are only two of those left. But for pot odds of 1:8, I would need at least 5 outs.

Now, nevermind if that example is flawed to some extend because any 8,3,2 will probably be at least half an out each for me etc. etc. etc. One could probably construct watertight cases, but that's not the point.

The point is that I bet out even though "objectively" I probably don't have the odds.
I assume, I can and should bet because
a) I quite possibly already hold the nuts so that odds calculation kind of loose the point and
b) I have a lot of pot equity on this hand. Since I'm entitled to - what was it? 58% or so? - of the pot, each bet I put in, returns more than it costs, on average. That's a fact I simply accept.

But what about less clear examples?

I guess my general question is: When it's correct to call is something I can calculate. Is there a similar way to calculate when to bet? Or is postflop play more a matter of "general" strategical concepts?

And, where does this 58% figure in the case of pocket aces come from? Statistics? Experience? Crystal ball?

[sfustsh]

Fuck pot equity. Let me put it this way. Your opponents nail a set 1/7.5 times. Assuming you're even up against a pp, he has to nail the set. If you are going to think this way you will never call with anything but the nuts because there is always a hand you could be losing to. Even AAKQJ on the board with pocket AA loses to T if the T is suited with the board.

In general, if you can call you should bet unless you're on the come and have reason to believe you will be raised and will be forced to call that raise therefore costing you more BB than you want to spend.

Seriously, on that board, fucking bet. Of course, if you're behind you have a 4% chance of improving. But christ, there's only a 13% chance that you're losing! Bet because you are an 87% favorite, not because you are a 96% underdog 13% of the time. Bet, raise, cap!.

By the way I don't think you can count 8 3 2 as outs for you if you're behind. While you get two pair, your opponents potential have quads. So those outs could be dead. Your only true outs are A or runner runner 4 5.

I can't explain pot equity to you. I don't use it in my game, because I feel it's a redundent and restricting way to analyze your hand mathematically.

Also, if you feel you have the best hand, bet ALWAYS. It doesn't matter if the board is just screaming to be drawn on, BET. You MUST make your opponents pay to draw. If you don't, you give them infinite odds to call. In fact if you feel you have a REASONABLE CHANCE of having the best hand or if you are on the come have a GOOD chance of improving, bet. That's the best I can do, and another piece of advice would be to not restrict your game based on mathematical calculations.

[fifo]

LOL thanks for that calm and succintly argued response!

Fuck pot equity. Let me put it this way. Your opponents nail a set 1/7.5 times. Assuming you're even up against a pp, he has to nail the set. If you are going to think this way you will never call with anything but the nuts because there is always a hand you could be losing to. Even AAKQJ on the board with pocket AA loses to T if the T is suited with the board.

Exactly! Thus my uneasyness...

By the way I don't think you can count 8 3 2 as outs for you if you're behind. While you get two pair, your opponents potential have quads. So those outs could be dead. Your only true outs are A or runner runner 4 5.

True. Therefore "half an out" (or whatever fraction is right) --> indeed an out for those cases that someone winds up with two pair and and has no pocket 8,3,2 himself.

Also, if you feel you have the best hand, bet ALWAYS.

LOL I guess my problem is that I don't have that feeling yet and therefore are looking for "mathematical" ways to develop it. But I know what you mean and that there's little you can say beyond what you already said. I guess it just takes time...

[sfustsh]

To be a winning player you must bet "with the best of it". It's completely fundamental. If I offered you $1.01 if you wagered a dollar on a coin toss then you'd take that bet because if we did it a million times you'd come out ahead. Same thing with poker. If the board is AAKQJ and you have AA then there is exactly one card in the deck that beats you. Therefore the odds your opponent has it is 2 / 45 or a little more than 4 percent. If you gave your opponent 2 random cards you could give your opponent 2250 dollars every time he flipped his cards and come out even. Those are good odds!

Learn to look for them! Sorry for all the swearing.

Otherwise, I've heard something like you need a hand that can win 2:1 to call but only a hand that can win 1:2 to bet. This is because of fold equity.

[fifo]

Otherwise, I've heard something like you need a hand that can win 2:1 to call but only a hand that can win 1:2 to bet. This is because of fold equity.

Yeah, that might be true in NL, but in limit, on a raised pot after the flop, your fold equity is just about zero, no? Even more so in sweet water habitat with little fish swarming around you

[sfustsh]

Yeah so I guess if you need a hand that can win 8:1 to call you need a hand that can win 8-chance your opponent will fold : 1 to bet.

I guess the chance your opponent will fold is like what, less than 1/9, right? They'd be getting odds to call otherwise. So let's just say on average you need 7:1 to bet.

Sounds a little off. Who knows could be right though.

[ugignadl]

What? You need more details if you want advice on a given situation, with clearly defined variables and constants. Ranges for players in the pot, stakes, read, these things need to be known before anyone can properly comment.

[snickers99]

This is not meant as an insult, but does anybody else think that fifo is maybe thinking a little too much?

[fifo]

This is not meant as an insult, but does anybody else think that fifo is maybe thinking a little too much?

LOL quite possibly very true. Trying to think myself out of the uncontrollable chance-part of the game...

[snickers99]

This is not meant as an insult, but does anybody else think that fifo is maybe thinking a little too much?

LOL quite possibly very true. Trying to think myself out of the uncontrollable chance-part of the game...

Glad you didn't take it the wrong way. Just trying to say sometimes you have to go with your gut and/or say "well, if you got one of the three cards that beats me, good for you" and bet and/or call it down.

[sfustsh]

This is not meant as an insult, but does anybody else think that fifo is maybe thinking a little too much?

LOL quite possibly very true. Trying to think myself out of the uncontrollable chance-part of the game...

Glad you didn't take it the wrong way. Just trying to say sometimes you have to go with your gut and/or say "well, if you got one of the three cards that beats me, good for you" and bet and/or call it down.

Couldn't give better advice myself. I think you should invest some time in some hand reading skills. If you knew what your opponent had, it'd be easier to make a decision, wouldn't it?

Most poker books have a section on hand reading, unfortunately, there's no definitive source for handing reading as a skill as far as I know.

If there is someone please tell me! I would DIE for a book on hand reading.

[biggle10]

If there is someone please tell me! I would DIE for a book on hand reading.

No such book will exist, as hand reading is usually player dependent.

For example, a player in late position raises on the flop with a 2 flush on board. Some players never do this with a draw, some always do.