JJ against EP raiser

[bobcorn]

PokerStars Game #3267357079: Tournament #16175114, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/12/07 - 15:40:12 (ET)
Table '16175114 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: checkerpro (665 in chips)
Seat 2: 75_Bigdog_75 (3170 in chips)
Seat 3: bobcorn (1265 in chips)
Seat 4: SUplaya (1580 in chips)
Seat 5: U Jack Golf (3058 in chips)
Seat 6: bigbuck123 (902 in chips)
Seat 7: Richie78 (1370 in chips)
Seat 8: red47 (1490 in chips)
SUplaya: posts small blind 25
U Jack Golf: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bobcorn [Js Jc]
bigbuck123: calls 50
Richie78: raises 150 to 200
red47: folds
checkerpro: folds
75_Bigdog_75: calls 200
bobcorn: ???
bobcorn: raises 1065 to 1265 and is all-in
SUplaya: folds
U Jack Golf: folds
bigbuck123: folds
Richie78: raises 105 to 1370 and is all-in
75_Bigdog_75: calls 1170
*** FLOP *** [Ad 3c 3s]
*** TURN *** [Ad 3c 3s] [4h]
*** RIVER *** [Ad 3c 3s 4h] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Richie78: shows [Jd Ah] (a full house, Aces full of Threes)
75_Bigdog_75: shows [Qd Kd] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Richie78 collected 210 from side pot
bobcorn: shows [Js Jc] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
Richie78 collected 3920 from main pot

Richie78 is fairly loose. I think his range might be AT+, 77+. 75_Bigdog_75 is loose too and his range for flat-calling here is very loose. If i push i will most likely be called by one of them. I dont think folding is an option and flat-calling feels weak. Who pushes here? I would also push AK in this situation but i would fold TT. Is this a leak?

[kbar13]

I push this hand. With your reads on your opponents, I would expect to be ahead and think a push is reasonable.

[mervhage]

I would push here, like kbar said. You have definitive reads on both players as being loose, you're fairly certain you have the best hand and a push is good.

[scottie_g]

I say lay it down. If you think there's a good chance they will both call you are in real bad shape. Chances are between both of them there is an Ace, King, and maybe a Queen. JJ 3 way is no good. Save your chips for a better opportunity.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.0205 % 37.28% 00.74% { JhJs }
Hand 2: 30.9898 % 29.58% 01.41% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 30.9898 % 29.58% 01.41% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

So it looks like you have a slight edge if they are playing the top 8% of all hands. Still, the edge is slight and I think tournament life is more important.

[jacedk]

I say flat-call. You have position, and if the flop looks unfriendly you can cut your losses. JJ is to good of a hand to just fold, especially if your opponents are loose, but it needs help from the board to win.

Pushing here is to risky at this point in the tourney. Your tournament life is much more important, and certainly not worth risking in a coinflip, which is almost certainly what you will get, if ONE of them calls. Against both of them, you lose more often than you win.

[rode_dog]

I have to go with Jace on this one. I don't love the flat call, but here it makes sense. Think of it like playing a "set of fold" pair with extra options. If you hit a set, great! Your hand is hidden, so try to trap the villian. If you miss your set, but the board looks OK, you are most likely ahead. Bet if he checks and attack if he makes a probe bet.

If the flop is bad, it's pretty easy to get away from the jacks.

[caffiend]

After reading the flat call suggestions I wondered why I felt so strongly that it was push or fold. It's because you don't say how they're likely to play post flop.

Realistically, if you make a flat call here and they're loose enough that you know you'll be facing a bet and a cold call you have to fold your jacks if they're an overpair. Add to that the fact that you've given both of them a range which includes AT+ and you're also potentially in trouble with any flop that's three to broadway or two to broadway with a flush draw. That eliminates a small, but respectable amount of flops where you make a set.

So I think the flat call is only justified if your chances of buying them off are substantially better post flop. That may be true, it's not really uncommon to find people who raise big cards then toss them on a bad flop. If they're loose throughout the hand then you likely want to push here to get heads up with one of them and pray.

[bobcorn]

I agree that flat calling was an option, but i'd have to be willing to go broke on a flop w/ all undercards because these guys would bet anything.

[mervhage]

You're putting your money in when you're confident you have the best hand. This is why I'm opposed to flat-calling. Get all in with the best of it and don't think twice.

[jacedk]

After reading the flat call suggestions I wondered why I felt so strongly that it was push or fold. It's because you don't say how they're likely to play post flop.

Realistically, if you make a flat call here and they're loose enough that you know you'll be facing a bet and a cold call you have to fold your jacks if they're an overpair. Add to that the fact that you've given both of them a range which includes AT+ and you're also potentially in trouble with any flop that's three to broadway or two to broadway with a flush draw. That eliminates a small, but respectable amount of flops where you make a set.

So I think the flat call is only justified if your chances of buying them off are substantially better post flop. That may be true, it's not really uncommon to find people who raise big cards then toss them on a bad flop. If they're loose throughout the hand then you likely want to push here to get heads up with one of them and pray.

If you don't want to flat-call (which is very understandable, given the argument you present), then you gotta drop it.

The reason I feel so strongly against pushing, is that IT'S NOT NECESSARY!. You willingly give up your advantage of position and risk your tournament life to blindly race on a very slight advantage at best.

While a push might triple you up, it does not guarantee that you will win the tourney. Sure, it puts you in a much better position, but there is no reason to risk all of your chips at this point. Your M is almost 17, and you have plenty of time to increase your stack by blindstealing and playing hands where you take the initiative.

Consider the betting and stack sizes. Both of them has you covered. Richie78 raises 4x BB from EP with one limper. With the read you have on him being loose and likely to call, the probability that he will fold to an all-in is very small. And once he has gone all-in as well, 75_bigdog_75 with his stack three times yours and money already in the pot, surely isn't going anywhere. And then you lose more often than you win, as scottie_g pointed out.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.0205 % 37.28% 00.74% { JhJs }
Hand 2: 30.9898 % 29.58% 01.41% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 30.9898 % 29.58% 01.41% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

Wether or not you want to call depends entirely on your confidence in your ability to play better on the flop. If you call and miss, your M will fall to 14.2, which is not good, but by no means critical. But caffiend presents some very valid reasons why flop play would be tricky, even with position.

[caffiend]

I agree that flat calling was an option, but i'd have to be willing to go broke on a flop w/ all undercards because these guys would bet anything.

But in that case you should probably push or fold. If you're willing to go broke with three undercards on the flop then you're not giving them QQ+ so you're ahead of them now. In the original post you're saying one will likely fold to a push, which means your choices are JJ against a worse hand heads up, or JJ against two worse hands in a big pot with two cards to come.

The problem with that is they probably won't bet anything, just most things. If they've got something like KQ and AT that gives them nine outs against undercards, plus whatever other draws they've picked up. You could easily go from a 60/40 favorite against one with a push to being a 40/60 dog against two of them and flopped unders.

Folding isn't really a bad option, if you expect them to bet any flop. Richie's in there for about 15% of his stack preflop, so a big bet comes close to commiting him. If you think he's definately betting the flop it may be worth sitting back and seeing if he manages to blow a foot off.

[Linuxrocks]

I push this hand. With your reads on your opponents, I would expect to be ahead and think a push is reasonable.

Bump. At 25/50, you either have to fold this or push in my opinion. After that first call, it's tough to play this by just flat-calling.

[caffiend]

I'd be more likely to cold call with AK than anything. There are alot fewer trouble flops than with JJ, and you're more likely to isolate yourself against a better hand pushing AK.

QQ I'd push. Strictly speaking you should be less willing to play QQ behind a raise than AA or KK, but so many people raise garbage in tournaments that I've found you're best off treating QQ+ almost the same as the two big pairs. You're really only up against AK or pairs with it most times, so there's no overcard bunching like smaller pairs are aflicted with. Either someone has AK and there's two cards to worry about, or not. It's not like you pick up two callers pushing TT and find out they've got AKQJ between the two of them.

[Dday44]

Flat calling is not an option that I would recommend for two reasons - 1- it doesn't further define the hand and 2- it doesn't give you position-yes, you will be last to act after flop but since you didn't act agressively preflop, then it more than likely that someone will bet out flop- there is a difference between being last to act and having(taking ) position.

If you raise it to 475, then you can get yourself position and you can further define the hand- if all call and flop is weird, you ar eprobably ahead, if you get rerasied all-in, then you know that you are most likely beat and at best 50-50- at worst 4-1 dog.

If you go allin, you will be called by hands that beat you and they will take your stack, so with stack size at that point in tourny I would not go allin.

Again, you can also preserve your chips and fold knowing that someone already made aggressive move and someone flat called...

My option is raise to 450 or so to both get position and define hand and to be able to ditch if I'm reraised all-in

[mattaca]

I like Dday's raise option, but I also don't mind the flat call. If the board comes down rags then you can bet out/raise with the feeling that you hold the best hand.

If a scary flop comes out, then you can let the hand go for a minimum figuring that one of them is good for an A or a K.

I often like to see the flop early on because the % chance that your best hand will still hold up is far greater post-flop.

But I do tend to try and take down the pot pre-flop with JJ so I guess I am contradicting myself a bit.

This is a great hand for discussion because I could see myself doing all of the mentioned options, push, raise, call or fold in a given situation.