I know what you have.

[poormanbilly]

No reads. I just sat down. Villain was very slow calling the turn. Given that, can I get more on the river with a push or was this just the right amount?

Converted by PokerGeek
Full Tilt NL Hold'em Ring - 0.25/0.50 Blinds (6 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 1: UTG ($90.25)
Seat 2: LP ($55.50)
Seat 3: CO ($23.10)
Seat 4: Button ($29.70)
Seat 5: Small blind ($55.60)
Seat 6: Big blind (Hero) ($50.65)

Preflop: Hero is Big blind with ,
UTG raises ($1), 2 folds, Button calls ($1), Small blind folds, Hero calls ($0.50)

Flop: ($3.25) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets ($2), Hero calls ($2), UTG raises ($4), Button folds, Hero calls ($2)

Turn: ($13.25) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets ($3), Hero raises ($12), UTG calls ($9)

River: ($37.25) (2 players)
Hero bets ($15), UTG calls ($15)

Final Pot: $64.25 ($3 rake)

Results not shown

[mirage]

I think you might be able to get away with 20. It's hard to say since you just sat down, but 15-20 looks good to me. NH.

[mervhage]

I guess you're putting him on AK? It's just a weak UTG raise that makes me think otherwise.

Anyhow, I think that's a good bet on the river, but I'd lean closer to 20 myself.

[sfustsh]

I think your check raise on the turn shattered his confidence in his hand.

20 is just a little over half the pot, I think it's fine to go there, because at NL50 your suck bets can be a little bigger than normal. (Normal, I guess, would be against very skilled opponents, where you, I suppose, have to play perfectly O_o)

[poormanbilly]

Keep in mind that I have $34-ish left. $20 is pretty strong call me bet while $15 could still be a bluff that I could fold if he pushed. That's how I think about it at least. As for the c/r on the turn, I didn't mind having his confidence shattered because I wanted to know if it was AA or QQ.

[easy_as_pie]

15 is just as strong given your action thus far

if you put him on A4 or Ak you might as well just push because if he is calling 15 he is calling a push. you re not very deepstaked

given his flop min raise, which is horrible, i think he is most definetly going to stack off on the river very often to make this a profitable move

also, what do you put him on?

[ugignadl]

PF m-r + F m-r + AQ flop 2 pair = reraise flop IMO.

[mirage]

while $15 could still be a bluff that I could fold if he pushed.

I'm never folding this here, if he's got a set I guess I'm screwed.

Edit: I think I misread it, are you trying to induce a bluff from him?

I def. reraise flop, I want to get this AI asap if he'll let me.

[nlman]

I like $15 bet and I like your idea of giving him some room to try to bluff it (however, it is very unlikely that he does it after watching your play).
If you look at it from his POV, he BARELY called $9 on the turn. Would you call a shove after $9 reraise on the turn (when all other signs point to slowplay)? I know I wouldn't and I am quite sure that most tight players wouldn't, so unless you have some sort of rep at this table or you have a read on him, I would say that $15 bet is perfect.

[poormanbilly]

PF m-r + F m-r + AQ flop 2 pair = reraise flop IMO.

Meh. I can't really get much money in the pot from the BB and it looks too strong to try and get all the money in on the flop against two guys IMO. I think it gets smelled out.

Edit: I think I misread it, are you trying to induce a bluff from him?

I didn't mean to say I was trying to get him to bluff. What I meant was that it's more likely I'm bluffing with $15 than with my whole stack and thus more likely to get a call for $15 than a push.

Taking a page from Sklansky and Miller, EV = (Pcall)(S)

So, just throwing out some numbers here, this is what it looks like. We can debate the calling %s, but this is just what I made up to start with.

$5 bet gets called 100% of the time
EV = $5= (1.00)($5)

$15 bet gets called 50% of the time
EV = $7.50 = (.5)($15)

$30 bet gets called 25% of the time
EV = $7.50 = (.25)($30)

I actually had a little more than $30 left, so assuming he calls 25% of the time (a big if I think. I agree with NLMan here. A tight player mucks to a push), that's the best +EV play. Obviously, all of this assumes I had the best hand, which I was very confident I had. He, of course, had AK. No way he has any other hand there (AA, QQ, A4) by the time I got the info from him on the turn.

[ugignadl]

You reckon? I think if you check raise the turn you are selling yourself short. At least a flop raise lets them think they are beating more hands than they really are. You have to think why let a turn card come off that is most likely just going to lose you value.

[poormanbilly]

You reckon? I think if you check raise the turn you are selling yourself short. At least a flop raise lets them think they are beating more hands than they really are. You have to think why let a turn card come off that is most likely just going to lose you value.

I reckon I wasn't sure I had the best hand until the wussie turn bet. Preflop min raise + flop check min raise is a pretty strong line for a donk.

[ugignadl]

You reckon? I think if you check raise the turn you are selling yourself short. At least a flop raise lets them think they are beating more hands than they really are. You have to think why let a turn card come off that is most likely just going to lose you value.

I reckon I wasn't sure I had the best hand until the wussie turn bet. Preflop min raise + flop check min raise is a pretty strong line for a donk.

Unless he is a very confused donk...capitalise on the moment of confusion! Before he knows it all the money is in the middle, and his buddy might be caught in the crossfire .