How d'you win at this game again?

[neverthink]

Took a break for a month or so, played very little, come back to this after winning about 4 buyins, this is the second or third set over set in under 2500 hands. Should I be assuming he has QQQ or AAA when he raises the turn? Feel terrible about it or is that just poker, get on with it. Sets I am quite certain are losing me money since November. I think the only way out of this hand is to rule that I fold all but top set, which seems nuts, but would have saved me cash lately, a lot.


6 players, I'm UTG+1 with 77


UTG folds, I make it $4, all fold to button who CCalls, blinds fold.

A 7 2 rainbow

I bet $7 into $9 pot,
Button calls

A 7 2 Q puts up 2 spades

I bet like $17 into $22 pot
Button thinks and slightly more than minraises to $38
I shove for $60 odd feeling pretty happy
Button calls.

River's irrelevant as button flips over AA for flopped top set.

The pot right before this one I had hit another low set after raising preflop and made big bets where villain folded on the river, so there is a reasonable chance I am seen as exploiting/bluffing here, or betting top pair too hard.

This is the same for every big hand I play. In a blind war the other day I reraised QQ preflop, hit a set on an Ace high flop and got nailed again by AAA.

Anyways, does anyone play this differently?


Oh yeah, 2 minutes later, I flop a huuuuuge draw, make 2 pair on the turn, bet 3/4 pot... villain disconnects! I know on purpose because he rejoined immediately after the hand and he legged it when I mentioned it. No honour amongst some of these degenerates. Donks that can't fold top pair just save themselves 2/3rds of a stack by pulling this shit. Very close to having had it with this game and many of the people it attracts. Chat is verrry neg EV for me, have to turn it off save myself from their stupid taunts. No damn manners these pricks.

[sfustsh]

In my opinion, there is nothing you can do about set over set.

In this hand, button can easily be calling you with A2 6 handed, as well as any other top ace. If the A is not a spade, he could have Ax with two spades and minraise on the turn, figuring to have 2 A 3 kickers and 9 spades as outs.

I probably wouldn't raise there though, since it's spew. Your opponent (you) will shove, since it's obvious he has a hand he wants to play for, so raising only reopens the betting, and gives you a bet you have to call with a hand you know you're behind with. If you want to draw, raising the turn is very incorrect. I think a superstar player will not minraise here without AA or QQ, but even at this buyin, you can't expect your opponents to be that sophisticated, especially in the heat of battle.

Having said that, you can read him for three queens or aces. All the information is there and his betting is consistent with that hand. But not shoving will cost you more money than not even if you are playing HSP with all those pros, I think. More often than not he has two pairs or (if he's really aggressive) just an A.

Besides, seriously, he SHOULD reraise with aces or queens preflop.

[faquewdikhed]

yup ez fold

[neverthink]

In my opinion, there is nothing you can do about set over set.

I probably wouldn't raise there though, since it's spew. Your opponent (you) will shove, since it's obvious he has a hand he wants to play for, so raising only reopens the betting, and gives you a bet you have to call with a hand you know you're behind with.

When you say you wouldn't raise, you mean if you were villain? Or you would just call his turn raise instead of my 3 bet. I reraised because I was protecting my hand, I had to think my set was best, I mean, it's what I played the hand for. I didn't want to see a river with cash left as he could check a missed draw behind me when I could have gotten more on the turn, plus it's a tough place on the river if a spade does fall and he bets a set or worse hand than I hold. I would have to fold, so I stand by my 3 bet shove if that was what you disagreed with, though I think I may have misunderstood you.

I thought his range on the turn could be this:
AQ, A2, 22 or flush draw. Possibly QQ played passively and lucking out. AA is a longshot. I don't know if QQ would play prior streets like this. Coldcall preflop, call bet on A high flop as well? Surely the player who merely calls with QQ preflop is doing so to look for a safe flop before hammering away. Calling on a bad flop just goes against the preflop logic. So I would remove QQ in nearly all circumstances. AA is possible, and would play like this if deceptively played preflop, but so could 22, AQ, A2 and a semibluffing flush draw.

So likely range is:

AQ, 22, A2 and a multitude of flush draws. This is not including other possible holding such as A7 or Q7 as that includes case cards (the 7) which I always consider unlikely, but nevertheless they are there. Q2 is also available as they will call the flop with any pair often.

Bottom line is, if I am not going to lose my money with this hand, then surely there is no point to playing it? As far as my image goes, my turn bet could mean semibluffing myself after picking up a draw, a set, 2 pairs, or maybe AK slightly overbet (though 3/4 pot is pretty standard for some people with the hand). He cannot ping me for exactly a set here I am pretty certain, so I would get action from less than my own hand I think. General consensus is that if you don't lose a lot of cash playing sets, you didn't play it hard enough.

It does seem as though my cards are face up atm however, even though I play the same as I did for 65 000 hands before this awful run (which it seems is not done with me yet). I nearly always get called by better in big pots or people are folding. I find this odd as I certainly have a far wider range and am uniformly aggressive with all kinds of hands from top pair to flush draws, moreso than other seemingly winning players. Tough to know when you are going through Hell and losing the minimum, or just playing badly. Overall though, I don't think I should be worried about having to fold sets at most mid stakes levels, let alone NL $100... but I am.

I guess if we are gonna lose about 35 percent of the time, then I statistically have a fair few hands more to go.

[neverthink]

yup ez fold

Oh rly?

Edit: I don't mind if you disagree with my play, but your post is pretty useless. plz add some reasoning, unless you are just trying play bigshot with some 3 word ending of my thread. Or maybe you shouldn't, it could be beyond my comprehension. Thx anyway.

@Sfu, thx for your reply, after looking though this in hindsight, I think there are definitely enough hands that I am ahead of to make folding unacceptable against all but the absolute tightest of players, especially given what I have invested and potsize on the turn. I don't usually follow this trail of thought as it leads to too much allowing for errors in with pretty big hands, but I am very exploitable if I fold to a turn raise there with what just became 3rd set. Any draw played creatively will fold out all my hands but the nuts, and I can't wait for those all of the time, I will be broke.

I suppose the ultimate test will be if Ugi manages not to throw up while reading it .

[LadyWrestler]

yup ez fold

Winning begins by folding mid sets!

[neverthink]

yup ez fold

Winning begins by folding mid sets!

... and losing value against 2 pairs and low sets!

Ok seriously, I'm somewhat surprised by 2/3 of people so far saying folding the third nuts here is easy. Where is Ked when I need someone to say "if you don't go broke with a set you're a pussy and should go home".

Ladywrestler, you think that I will only ever see AA or the slightly less likely QQ here given all information? QQ actually means villain lost cash in the long run here anyway, so I can live with that.

[mewsiclovr]

yup ez fold

<snip>

I'm pretty sure he was joking, at least, I'd be very surprised if he wasn't.

[ugignadl]

wtfnt?nh.

[neverthink]

yup ez fold

<snip>

I'm pretty sure he was joking, at least, I'd be very surprised if he wasn't.

Ok, if I got you wrong there Faque then you have my apologies, it seems that my sense of humour (and I occasionally fear pokah skillz ) have deserted me.

Idk how to add another quote in as I suck at the internet but, Ug, cool

[LadyWrestler]

yup ez fold

Winning begins by folding mid sets!

... and losing value against 2 pairs and low sets!

Ok seriously, I'm somewhat surprised by 2/3 of people so far saying folding the third nuts here is easy. Where is Ked when I need someone to say "if you don't go broke with a set you're a pussy and should go home".

Ladywrestler, you think that I will only ever see AA or the slightly less likely QQ here given all information? QQ actually means villain lost cash in the long run here anyway, so I can live with that.

I was joking...hence the at the end of my post. I would have busted with a set of 7's there, too. I believe that Faq was joking as well.

[poormanbilly]

I give this thread my big WTF? thumbs up.

[LadyWrestler]

I give this thread my big WTF? thumbs up.

[sfustsh]

In my opinion, there is nothing you can do about set over set.

I probably wouldn't raise there though, since it's spew. Your opponent (you) will shove, since it's obvious he has a hand he wants to play for, so raising only reopens the betting, and gives you a bet you have to call with a hand you know you're behind with.

When you say you wouldn't raise, you mean if you were villain? Or you would just call his turn raise instead of my 3 bet.

Yes that is exactly what I meant. 3bet, you play your pair FOR SETS. That is exactly right, that is what I meant by this post. If your OPPPONENT raises, he is making a mistake unless he has AA or QQ. But most of the time he doesn't, so you are overwhelmingly correct to shove. I agree with you. Your play is correct, his is not! Not shoving is a leak that you should fix. The fact that you've lost set over set a number of times recently is not a reason to change your play. That is, indeed, how you should play. You are correct, you have no leak, he does!

To clarify my post, if I were your OPPONENT, I would not raise the turn (UNLESS I HAD THREE ACES OR QUEENS). The reason should be obvious, and I stated it already. Neverthink, I 'agree' with your play, not disagree with it.

To note, I am very drunk at this time.

EDIT: How can any of you say that folding a set is EASY? Personally, sets make me more money than any other holding. I absolutely think you are losing value if you consistently fold undersets, especially on an A high flop.

[LadyWrestler]

To note, I am very drunk at this time.