Tight Poker

[tdostie@nc]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) TightPoker converter

Hero ($70.50)
MP ($50.80)
CO ($71.95)
Button ($26.25)
SB ($123.80)
BB ($48.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises to $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($4.25) , , (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.5, MP raises to $49.8, Button folds, BB calls $47.60 (All-In), Hero ???


BB is 39.3/9.5/2.6 thru 84 hands with no real reads. MP is 61.4/19.3/1.8 thru 57 and is pretty much a fish which I stacked pretty much right when I sat down, seems to be out for revenge. The preflop raise was suppose to be $2, but I misclicked. Any thoughts? Easy fold?

[crunny]

JESUS!!! Talk about a tough spot.

I think we really need to know what MP is capable of making this play with???

Uggghhh, I probably fold. Sorry I can't be of more help.

[sfustsh]

Check call all in? Shit.

Let's see. If both MP and BB have straights you have odds to draw to a full house. Your only worry is if you are underset. Unfortunately BB's line seems like a potential set to me.

It's close but I think we're already losing just a little too often to call. I'm not sure it's a big deal either way though. If you called you would hardly be taking the worst of it.

[johnny]

I guess the only way you are ahead is if MP pushed with AT and BB called with a flush draw, and then you have to hope another spade doesn't hit. I just give him the $4.50 and make sure I put in both of their notes what they showed down with.

[mirage]

No way do I fold, I mean I'm seeing monsters too but I also see poorly played overpairs and draws, and even TPGK enough in these situations to know that a call is profitable. I wish the raise would have been standard to make 97 a little less likely holding but even so, as played, call and hope to fill up. Worst case scenario is a bigger set but I don't think that happens that often here.

[johnny]

Anyone know how often a set is supposed to hold up here to a straight or flush draw? It's something I've been wondering anyway. I think my inclination to lay down comes from having over 50% of them busted in recent weeks, so it would be really interesting to know the percentages.

[sfustsh]

Anyone know how often a set is supposed to hold up here to a straight or flush draw? It's something I've been wondering anyway. I think my inclination to lay down comes from having over 50% of them busted in recent weeks, so it would be really interesting to know the percentages.

3 to 1 to hold against a straight.
a little less than 3 to 1 to hold against a flush.
2 to 1 to hold against a flush with a gutshot.

EDIT: Also of interest:
About 1.4 to 1 to hold against both. (57.8%)

[johnny]

Thank you.

I guess you call but I just don't like the way the whole thing smells. I suppose MP could have been getting stupid-tricky the way fish will sometimes do with a high pocket pair, but I bet BB is on that flush draw.

[sfustsh]

If you know both players don't have sets then this is a call all day.

It just depends on how often you think they have sets here.

[johnny]

If they are raising 9.5 and 19.3 either one of them is surely reraising TT to hero's minraise so I think you can take that out of the equasion. Quite likely 88 too at least for MP. Would be great to have this much time to think in a game.

[poormanbilly]

http://www.ezcall24x7.com/home.asp

[ugignadl]

Seriously WTF people. Call and laugh all the way to the bank.

Edit: Because this post exists, are we looking at and ?

[neverthink]

If there was ever a time to fold a set, then I think this is it. It's a tough spot after one guy just raises you all in like that, but callable, but 2 players and I think folding is better. But I haven't played $50 for yonks, this could be money shipment time against.

I'd be happy calling the donkey, but I don't think the other guy calls all in without a hand similarly sized to your own. I'd muck it. The BB looks like a confident man.

[sfustsh]

I am not saying that either player definitely has a set. The problem is that almost every time they do, you have one out. So those few times you get underset you lose everything, instead of the times you get called and hold up for thrice your cost.

Like I said, if we know they don't have sets then this is an easy call, but how many hands does BB check call all in? Look at what he's done. What could he possibly have, knowing he has a bet and an all in raise in front of him? AT of spades, maybe, 79 for the nut straight, and 88 or TT. Maybe some weird two pair hands as well. It's totally possible that he doesn't reraise TT preflop as well, hoping for a profitable situation on the flop, and not wanting to reopen the betting.

I just think it's underset too often to make it worth it.

[poormanbilly]

LOL@TT