Big stack poll

[randy72560]

This seems to be a bit under debate. I'm curious to see the results. Please post your thoughts and let's debate..

Do you think it is worth risking your stack in the first few levels with only a small advantage to gain the big stack? Does it reall improve your chances that much??

I have confidence that I'm going to outplay most of the players at the table, so I usually try to avoid huge early confrontations with only a small edge.

[sfustsh]

I voted no because:

If there's anyone here who's advocating a big stack early in a tourney it's me, but a small edge and a big edge are a whole different story. Two examples:

You raise TT from middle / late position and get called by the button. The flop is J23. You bet the pot and he raises you all-in. You're possibly ahead but if so you are not a huge favorite to win the hand. You have a small edge.

You have 89s from the BB and check with two limpers. The flop is 876 with two of your suit. You bet the pot, one of the limpers folds, the other limper goes all in or raises you enough that you can reraise all in, and the small blind folds. Of course you shove here, this is a huge edge. If you do not have the best hand, at worst you are against an overpair (which isn't even likely given preflop action) and you STILL are a favorite to win the hand, even if one of the cards is suited to the board. If he's got two suited overcards you're an even bigger favorite to win the hand. The worst case is that he has an eight with a ten kicker, in which case you're just over 50% to win if his kicker is suited with the board.

This is what I mean by taking the lead with a huge edge early in a tournament. I don't think anyone would disagree that this is not just marginally +EV, it's hugely +EV.

[mewsiclovr]

I'm undecided so I just voted maybe. Generally I try to avoid big confrontations without a big hand. Of course this is something that still needs a lot of work (heh, I guess this came from the JJ hand, so yeah I need a lot of work!)

[Linuxrocks]

In early levels, certainly no. Mid levels, a doubling up is almost always good. That's when people start taking small risks and if you just manage to play slightly less conservative and stack some one more power to you.

In Turbos, however, the difference is very quickly nullified with raising blinds unless you are ultra-short-stacked.

[faquewdikhed]

The answer to this is very dependent on the structure of the sng. Important variables are Pay structure, Blinds, Level times, and starting players.

Assuming you are talking about the standard pokerstars 9 man turbo or similar, i would lean towards no. There are so many players who make -EV moves during the early and middle stages of the sng, that it is usually insanely profitable to just sit around and fold while your opponents piss away their money.

Still look for any good opportunity that you can find to double up, because you do have a big advantage when you double up early. I just don't think the advantage of doubling up early outweighs the risk of busting out of the tournament in marginal spots without ever giving yourself a chance to contend ITM. Especially when your opponents will almost always just give you a shot at winning.

Some hand example polls would add a lot to this thread. Randy, did you have any certain situations or hands in mind when you made this thread?

[ugignadl]

I only voted no because, as others have already said, there is no reason to take a small +EV situation when there are plenty of big +EV situations to come.

[mousey]

I only voted no because, as others have already said, there is no reason to take a small +EV situation when there are plenty of big +EV situations to come.

This is gambling Ugi, you are taking the chance that a bigger +EV situation comes along. If you push in every +EV situation no matter how big you WILL WILL WILL WILL win.

If you wait for higher +EV situations you have to factor in the odds of waiting for that +EV situation to come along before your stack bleeds to a point where it does you no good. If you can wait 15 hands and the odds of getting a good hand in 15 hands beats the odds of your current edge, then sure wait.

Its all math either way.

Ie: If you are bleeding X chips per hand, and you have a 60/40 edge at the moment, you have to make sure that the next hand you get with better odds has to occur before dX/dT increases to a limiting value.

I say push every edge you have and you will win. Some edges are better to push than others don't get me wrong.

But fundamentally if you have a 100% read rate you have higher than 50% edge. PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH !!!!!!

Remember the edges of the blackjack teams would get, sometimes less than 1%

[redz]

No, not worth the risk IMO. I play super tight for first 3 blind levels, nothing weaker than AQ/QQ. Then steal blinds for the next couple of rounds, this gets me close to the bubble with minimum risk. This works great on the party $3 torneys mid week but can be hard to steal blinds at the weekend with all the crazy players. When I get close to the bubble I start playing very aggressive and go all in a lot for maximum fold equity. PS i've just moved form low limit holdem ring games so my strategy needs a lot of work yet. I'm $47 to $88 in about 20 torneys but I had a good run of cards at the start.

[ugignadl]

I only voted no because, as others have already said, there is no reason to take a small +EV situation when there are plenty of big +EV situations to come.

If you wait for higher +EV situations you have to factor in the odds of waiting for that +EV situation to come along before your stack bleeds to a point where it does you no good.

If you can wait 15 hands and the odds of getting a good hand in 15 hands beats the odds of your current edge, then sure wait.

That's the situation as I see it. I don't think there is anything wrong with my calculations.

[redz]

From my limited experience, doubleing up at the start doesn't increase your chances of reaching the money as much as it increases your chances of busting out .

If you are a 60/40 favorite with your JJ or whatever that means doubling up needs to increase your chances of reaching the money by at least 40% because you are going to bust out the other 40% of the time. Thats the way I see it, I may well be wrong, ive just had a smoke lol. Just my 2 cents worth.

[flash]

I only voted no because, as others have already said, there is no reason to take a small +EV situation when there are plenty of big +EV situations to come.

If you wait for higher +EV situations you have to factor in the odds of waiting for that +EV situation to come along before your stack bleeds to a point where it does you no good.

If you can wait 15 hands and the odds of getting a good hand in 15 hands beats the odds of your current edge, then sure wait.

That's the situation as I see it. I don't think there is anything wrong with my calculations.

Completely agree with Ugi.

[LadyWrestler]

I only voted no because, as others have already said, there is no reason to take a small +EV situation when there are plenty of big +EV situations to come.

If you wait for higher +EV situations you have to factor in the odds of waiting for that +EV situation to come along before your stack bleeds to a point where it does you no good.

If you can wait 15 hands and the odds of getting a good hand in 15 hands beats the odds of your current edge, then sure wait.

That's the situation as I see it. I don't think there is anything wrong with my calculations.

Completely agree with Ugi.