Tight Poker

[rode_dog]

I only saw about 15 hands with roboneal, but he has played 8 or 9 of them. Loose raiser, loose caller, seems agro on the flop and weak at the turn and river. He has lost every hand he played so far. Hard to make too much from only 15-16 hands.

The raise is only 3XBB, so I call hoping to set. I think he has Ax maybe as good as AK. AA-TT are possible, but he is loose, so I have to put him on a much wider range.

At the flop, he bets out. I think the flop hit him and he either has 2 PR, TPTK or TP good kicker. I have to believe I am ahead here, but I am seriously worried about pocket queens. There is 2 to a flush and 2 to a nut str8, so I'm not calling raise. I raise hoping for a call or a re-raise, but praying the re-raise is not QQ or KK. I'll be OK with a fold.

Very tough call for me here. I think I'm 70% to be ahead and 30% to lose my stack. I don't want to play for my stack at this level, but I can't fold here and look myself in the mirror.

Any suggestions? Should I have given more weight to QQ/KK? I think I played it right, but I'd like to hear some objective opinions.

***** Hand History for Game 3191909077 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, December 12, 23:24:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 72423 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Iceguy31 ( $208 )
Seat 2: AceHiFlushDr ( $121.65 )
Seat 3: kjgray ( $94.23 )
Seat 4: roboneal ( $104.60 )
Seat 6: Zerander ( $95 )
Seat 5: StoneColdDog ( $102.55 )
StoneColdDog posts small blind [$0.50].
Zerander posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to StoneColdDog [ 7c 7s ]
Iceguy31 folds.
AceHiFlushDr folds.
kjgray calls [$1].
roboneal raises [$3].
StoneColdDog calls [$2.50].
Zerander calls [$2].
kjgray folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 7h, Kd ]
StoneColdDog checks.
Zerander checks.
roboneal bets [$9.50].
StoneColdDog raises [$20].
Zerander folds.
roboneal is all-In.
StoneColdDog: Someone's getting hurt
StoneColdDog is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
StoneColdDog shows [ 7c, 7s ] three of a kind, sevens.
roboneal shows [ 8c, Kc ] a pair of kings.
roboneal wins $2.05 from side pot #1 with a pair of kings.
StoneColdDog wins $206.10 from the main pot with three of a kind, sevens.

[goofyballer]

Set over set = you lose your stack and move on. You can't fold this, especially to a loose player.

[puckhead23]

Very tough call for me here. I think I'm 70% to be ahead and 30% to lose my stack. I don't want to play for my stack at this level, but I can't fold here and look myself in the mirror.

Like you said, this guy is a loose cannon. Sure, KK or QQ is possible, but KQ is equally likely. K8 is just shocking. I think 70% is a very conservative estimate given your opponent. Even if you think you're only 50% ahead, you have correct odds to call (approx $75 into a $100+ pot). I can't see how the bottom set can be released here. It's a risk, but this is where profit is made. BTW, nice pot!!!!!!