A satellite hand for instructional purposes

[Linuxrocks]

My position 15/21. Next blind increase in 3 minutes.

13 spots get 215$, 3 get 33$, 1 gets 16$, 4 get nada. What's your decision and why ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) TightPoker converter

MP1 (t7999)
MP2 (t13040)
linuxrocks (t10893)
Button (t26380)
SB (t19976)
BB (t6120)
UTG (t14156)

Preflop: linuxrocks is CO with , .
1 fold, MP1 raises to t7899, MP2 calls t7899, linuxrocks ??

[ugignadl]

I'd fold. My pushing range here would be KK+.

You don't have one of those guys covered, and one will basically be knocked out by the end. Against both you are flipping at best. With this and other stacks you should be able to get into the (bigger) money. There are blinds to steal later if required.

That's my thinking in-the-heat-of-the-moment. Flawed?

[sfustsh]

I'd fold. My pushing range here would be KK+.

You don't have one of those guys covered, and one will basically be knocked out by the end. Against both you are flipping at best. With this and other stacks you should be able to get into the (bigger) money. There are blinds to steal later if required.

That's my thinking in-the-heat-of-the-moment. Flawed?

I agree here, FWIW.

[Linuxrocks]

Umm, I folded at the time, but it's close IMO.

[ugignadl]

Yeah, as I said, I am pushing KK+.

Anyone else?

[mewsiclovr]

damn that sucks...I guess it depends on whether you think you can outlast the last 8 people with your stack. If not, then call, else fold, at least that was my line of thinking.

[Linuxrocks]

Let's see some math. Tripling up will surely get you 215$, and losing you are out, losing the buy-in + rebuys.

So, EV = 215$ * x - (1 - x) * 55$

Note that, you have to beat both of them. Beating one is not enough. I think, against reasonable ranges, one probably has 1/3rd chance. More precisely,

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,754,565,120 games 2.859 secs 613,698,887 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.7729 % 31.21% 01.57% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 30.2852 % 29.34% 00.95% { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 36.9419 % 35.36% 01.59% { TT+ }

So, EV_call = +31.40$

However, I felt like at least one had higher pair. Then,

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

833,418,432 games 1.297 secs 642,573,964 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.1155 % 14.74% 02.38% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 23.4105 % 22.39% 01.02% { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 59.4740 % 56.33% 03.14% { QQ+ }

EV_call = -9.10$

These are the EV_call. EV_fold is difficult to calculate. Let's say we have 30% chance of winning 215$ after folding. Then,

EV_fold = +26$

So, what's the optimal percentage to win for EV_fold to be worse than EV_call ? Solving 215 * x - (1 - x) 55 < -9, we get x < 17%

I think we can easily manage to win 215$ more than 17% of the time. So, it's a fold.

[kdawgy]

I'm with Ugignadl on this one. I probably would've played it if I wasn't up against two of them. One on one, almost certainly would of played it. I agree, KK+ is the only way to go in this situation.

[tisko]

I think one thing which may have been missed in this discussion so far is the problem about the guy on the BB. With the stack of 6K before this hand, the big blind of 2K already posted, the blind of 1K to post next hand and the blinds going up in 3 minutes he will be clearly left in an awful position (called the "Dead Zone" by Harrington ) if folding. On the other hand, by calling he can have excellent pot odds (up to 1:6) and the chance to (at best) quadruple up, so I evaluate the chance of him calling to be very high.

To us, this means a bigger pot if won while also increasing the chance of losing the hand (and having left only 4800 chips when losing the hand only to him, which puts us into the dead zone (with the blinds going up)), so I thought we should take the possibility of BB not folding also into account.

[Linuxrocks]

Most people at this stage will have a stack like the one in BB. This is not a normal MTT, and I don't expect him to call. Finally, we still have to beat all three of them (if the BB calls) to have a chance to quadruple up.

[jacedk]

I agree that this is a tough fold, but given the circumstances probably the best option. Against either of them, I call and hope they don't have KK or AA.

PP, you play a lot of these satellites, right? Can you give some examples of how to adapt your strategy in relation to a normal MTT?

[LadyWrestler]

I am going contrary here: I would push over the top. With the blinds that high I think their ranges for pushing and calling are low enough to warrant the over push. With the 3rd or 4th best hand in hold'em (3rd best for an over the top push, with another obvious caller, IMO), and their probable ranges, I want all my chips in the middle with as many of theirs as I can get into that pot. I do not believe their push and call automatically mean AA, KK, or AK.

[Linuxrocks]

PP, you play a lot of these satellites, right? Can you give some examples of how to adapt your strategy in relation to a normal MTT?

See here - my guide to satellites

[jacedk]

PP, you play a lot of these satellites, right? Can you give some examples of how to adapt your strategy in relation to a normal MTT?

See here - my guide to satellites

Very nice, I'd missed that thread the first time around.

[LadyWrestler]

PP, you play a lot of these satellites, right? Can you give some examples of how to adapt your strategy in relation to a normal MTT?

See here - my guide to satellites

Wow! Thanks for posting this! Great stuff!!!