Tight Poker

by **hultin** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 4:34 pm

Thats a tough hand. What really scares me is his cold call to the guys stack. That tells me he is worried about nothing and I think he has KK or AA. With the blinds so huge its hard to fold this hand but I dont see how you can call unless the first MP1 is crazy and you know it and you ALSO have to know that MP2 knows that MP1 is crazy and that MP2 is able to call with weak hands like AJ AQ JJ TT etc. If you put MP2 on AK KK or AA its an easy fold. To warrent a call here I think you would have to know how MP2 views MP1 because that warrents his calling range. So like I said this hand is very tough, I probably fold.

by **LadyWrestler** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:33 am

Great discussion! Great thread! Good points made by all!

by **mattaca** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:50 am

Guys, I'm not saying I would call here or anything (although I keep going back and forth) but some of you are giving way too much credit to MP1. With only 8K and the blinds hitting him in 2 hands (possibly at 2K/4K) he could be making this move with Ax or a small/mid PP. Like Hultin said though, the cold call by MP2 is scary, but could be less than KK or AA.

by **ugignadl** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:44 am

Way too much credit like what? I don't think they need AA or KK for it to be a fold.

by **mattaca** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:23 am

Ugignadl wrote:Way too much credit like what? I don't think they need AA or KK for it to be a fold.

As in some were suggesting that MP1 was on TT or better where I was pointing out that it is likely that he would make this move with far less than that being so short with the blinds creeping up on him.

MP2 on the other hand is another story. But if I somehow knew MP2 had AK I'd push and take my chances.

by **Linuxrocks** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:51 am

For those who are saying "to call", I suggest you check the math I posted closely.

by **LadyWrestler** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:47 pm

ppadala wrote:For those who are saying "to call", I suggest you check the math I posted closely.

So far, I want to push over the top, sooo...later today, when I have the time, I will do exactly what you suggest! Thanks for reminding me about your math post!

I LIKE this thread!!! More like it would be welcome!

by **LadyWrestler** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 5:44 pm

LadyWrestler wrote:
ppadala wrote:For those who are saying "to call", I suggest you check the math I posted closely.

So far, I want to push over the top, sooo...later today, when I have the time, I will do exactly what you suggest! Thanks for reminding me about your math post!

I LIKE this thread!!! More like it would be welcome!

I looked at your math again. The problem I am having with folding this is I cannot get myself to believe QQ is no good against the probable ranges here. I am thinking it is highly probable that, in this particular situation, my QQ would be up against 2 hands that consist of 22-JJ, A2-AQ, or even a blackjack 20 hand. It may be that I need to tighten up my thinking in these types of situations, but I do not seem to be able to...at least not so far. I realize that the caller, in particular, could have AK, QQ, KK, or AA, but the chances seem very slim to me that he has that. You may be right and I just do not get it yet. Why am I wrong not to push over with what I believe is likely to be the best hand by far?

by **bigdil511** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:17 pm

I think this type of hand is better to be looked at the risk vs the reward. I am not really worried about the first push, and I seriously doubt that the cold call by the big stack is anything spectacular. Obviously they could both have you dominated, but the odds are that they don't. What I am curious about why doesn't the big stack push?, that could be a pretty good indication of strength or weakness, that is really read dependant. I am not worried about the short stack b/c hit pushing range here can be huge. I think a more likely scenario is that the big stack is loose, and will make this call with 77+ AJs+, knowing the short stacks desperation and I think we are way ahead more often than not. So in short I am pushing because I think we have the big stack beat, I am not the math wiz around here so I won't claim to say the numbers are right but I think its +EV to call here especially in a MTT.

by **Linuxrocks** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:27 am

LadyWrestler wrote:I looked at your math again. The problem I am having with folding this is I cannot get myself to believe QQ is no good against the probable ranges here. I am thinking it is highly probable that, in this particular situation, my QQ would be up against 2 hands that consist of 22-JJ, A2-AQ, or even a blackjack 20 hand. It may be that I need to tighten up my thinking in these types of situations, but I do not seem to be able to...at least not so far. I realize that the caller, in particular, could have AK, QQ, KK, or AA, but the chances seem very slim to me that he has that. You may be right and I just do not get it yet. Why am I wrong not to push over with what I believe is likely to be the best hand by far?

The flaw in thinking like this is that: it's not about how good we are against their ranges. It's about whether EV_fold > EV_call or not. We fold, and win 215$ even a meager 20% of the time, I think EV_fold > EV_call, for reasonable ranges. With that stack, I would put our probability of winning after folding at 50%, so to me it was a clear fold.

Finally your statement that

could have AK, QQ, KK, or AA, but the chances seem very slim to me

doesn't make any sense to me. Why not ?

by **Linuxrocks** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:28 am

BigDil511 wrote:I think this type of hand is better to be looked at the risk vs the reward. I am not really worried about the first push, and I seriously doubt that the cold call by the big stack is anything spectacular. Obviously they could both have you dominated, but the odds are that they don't. What I am curious about why doesn't the big stack push?, that could be a pretty good indication of strength or weakness, that is really read dependant. I am not worried about the short stack b/c hit pushing range here can be huge. I think a more likely scenario is that the big stack is loose, and will make this call with 77+ AJs+, knowing the short stacks desperation and I think we are way ahead more often than not. So in short I am pushing because I think we have the big stack beat, I am not the math wiz around here so I won't claim to say the numbers are right but I think its +EV to call here especially in a MTT.

See my post above.

by **LadyWrestler** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:24 pm

ppadala wrote:
LadyWrestler wrote:I looked at your math again. The problem I am having with folding this is I cannot get myself to believe QQ is no good against the probable ranges here. I am thinking it is highly probable that, in this particular situation, my QQ would be up against 2 hands that consist of 22-JJ, A2-AQ, or even a blackjack 20 hand. It may be that I need to tighten up my thinking in these types of situations, but I do not seem to be able to...at least not so far. I realize that the caller, in particular, could have AK, QQ, KK, or AA, but the chances seem very slim to me that he has that. You may be right and I just do not get it yet. Why am I wrong not to push over with what I believe is likely to be the best hand by far?

The flaw in thinking like this is that: it's not about how good we are against their ranges. It's about whether EV_fold > EV_call or not. We fold, and win 215$ even a meager 20% of the time, I think EV_fold > EV_call, for reasonable ranges. With that stack, I would put our probability of winning after folding at 50%, so to me it was a clear fold.

Finally your statement that
could have AK, QQ, KK, or AA, but the chances seem very slim to me
doesn't make any sense to me. Why not ?

Paddy: They seem very slim because those hands make up a very small percentage of the probable ranges I assigned to them. (AA,KK,AKs,AKo,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,77.66.55.44.33.22,AQs,AQo,AJs,AJo,ATs,ATo,KQs,KQo,KJs,KJo,KTs,KTo,QJs,QJo,QTs,QTo,JTs,JTo.)

I believe I am starting to get it, though! This is a MTT so it is a fold based on my chances of making more money in this MTT by folding this, whether I am ahead at this time, in this particular hand, or not. Then, in a cash game, with this number of people, this would be a push, but not in a tournament setting.

:idea:

The light in my dim brain just went on! Got it! THANKS!!! -LW

by **mewsiclovr** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:36 pm

Actually it's a satellite, which makes a fold even more tempting. Were this a regular mtt I'd call in a nanosecond.

by **bigdil511** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:19 pm

PP I understand you like using math but where exactly are you getting your number from? You are assuming and assigning possibilites which is what poker is all about, and like a said in my earlier post my range of hands I put the short stack on is huge, the range I put the flat call is also big, therefore my hand is dominating both of their ranges. I still don't think its easy call or easy fold but I still think its +ev to call.

by **Linuxrocks** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:41 pm

BigDil511 wrote:PP I understand you like using math but where exactly are you getting your number from? You are assuming and assigning possibilites which is what poker is all about, and like a said in my earlier post my range of hands I put the short stack on is huge, the range I put the flat call is also big, therefore my hand is dominating both of their ranges. I still don't think its easy call or easy fold but I still think its +ev to call.

Ok, show me your ranges and math and convince me that a 50% chance of winning after folding is worse EV than calling.

Tight Poker

A satellite hand for instructional purposes

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