Folding Pocket Aces - Good Poker Strategy?

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Folding pocket Aces is a discussion that seems to come up time to time when talking about various hypothetical texas hold'em situations. I'm not sure where the discussion totally comes from, but I believe that one of the more popular poker books out there advocates that it is incorrect to never fold AA. While folding pocket Aces may be the correct move in very special circumstances, 99.9% of the time it is a weak-tight poker and not good strategy.

Below is a discussion from the poker forum about this exact topic, with an initial poster asking about the question, then the replies that show folding AA is mathmematically unsound. If you wish to calculate odds yourself, you may check out twodimes.net for an online poker hand calculator.

Initial post from Lev:
Lets just say that it's the first hand of a S'n'G Tournament. You've been dealt pocket Aces, unfortunately at least three people have decided to go all-in Pre-Flop before you've had the chance the act. Now, of course you have the best hand in AA, but with this many people in the hand you aren't in the majority to win the hand. Would you call or not? Winning the hand doesn't assure that you'll place in the money, but losing assures that you won't....

Reply by MJ:
If you play that hand 100 times in the same situation, you're coming out the winner more often than not. Easy call for me.

That said, while you're the favorite to win - you're most likely not going to win. So, you might be like the 35% favorite, but that still leaves 65% unaccounted for.

Reply by Scotty:

Your question and the responses it got inspired me to actually test your % with the hand calculator, see the link under "General". This test uses 4 players, under the assumption that there has already been enough craziness. These are all tier 1 or tier 2 hands, which may be giving your opponents too much credit, but bear with me. If a hand is suited, I've put an "s" next to it, such as AKs:

Matchup #1 Slugfest

AK 2.7% KK 9.9% QQ 18.3% AA 69.0%

It might surprise you to realize that KK doesn't hold up very well in multiway pots, as big slick stole one of the two remaining outs. The Hilton sisters, however are about a 3.8 to 1 underdog.

Summary: 69% to 31%

Matchup #2 suited Slugfest

AKs 9.2% KK 10.4% QQ 15.9% AA 64.5%

Nearly same results, only now there is a flush threat. Summary: 64.5% to 35.5%

Matchup #3 Bump, Set, and Killed

JJ 12.5% QQ 14.4% KK 17.5% AA 55.6%

I'm sure this is the nightmare scenario that most of you have dreaded, and to listen to all the rants from Party Poker, you'd think this pocket pair matchup happened every 5 minutes... So, despite the three ways to be skewered, your percentage to win is still higher than your whole competition combined.

Summary: 55.6% to 44.4%

Matchup #4 The Big Slick Lockup

KK 0.1% AKs 10.6% AKs 10.6% AA 78.7%

If I saw this matchup holding AA, I'd be xxxxxxx all over myself before the river card fell. Then I'd laugh hysterically.

Summary: 78.7% to 21.3%

I would say you've received some good advice, but I disagree with Mathman, I think the correct play should be made regardless of what limits you're at. I play my best game all the time.

MJ, your second sentence doesn't seem to jive with the first sentence... not only is he likely to win, but his percentage is always much much higher than 35%. I do like that you've mentioned playing it 100 times, because it certainly underscores the idea of long term success... I think too many people get railroaded by short term loss and it tricks them into loosening up.

I don't care how many times I get aces cracked, I will continue to play them until my left ball falls out, and I will laugh at the person who won't play his hand correctly because he feels it's "unlucky."

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